**Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS place Milan’s maximum temperature on August 9 near 34 °C, driving the 44.5 % market-implied probability for that outcome.** Persistent high pressure over the central Mediterranean continues to favor subsidence warming and clear skies across the Po Valley, while the urban heat-island effect in Milan adds 1–2 °C locally. Recent model runs show limited spread between 33 °C and 35 °C, consistent with the near-equal 23.5 % odds on those bins, as any slight shift in the 850 hPa ridge or timing of a weak frontal passage could tip the daily high by one degree. Historical August maxima in Milan average 28–30 °C, so the current elevated baseline reflects the lingering influence of the early-August heatwave, though guidance indicates modest moderation by the 9th. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow 33–35 °C window most heavily ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on August 9?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 9?
34°C 47%
33°C 24%
35°C 24%
32°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
2%
32°C
4%
33°C
24%
34°C
47%
35°C
24%
36°C
4%
37°C
1%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
34°C 47%
33°C 24%
35°C 24%
32°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Aug 9, 2026
30°C or below
$354 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$322 Vol.
2%
32°C
$487 Vol.
4%
33°C
$2,278 Vol.
24%
34°C
$2,118 Vol.
47%
35°C
$829 Vol.
24%
36°C
$335 Vol.
4%
37°C
$169 Vol.
1%
38°C
$302 Vol.
1%
39°C
$389 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$385 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS place Milan’s maximum temperature on August 9 near 34 °C, driving the 44.5 % market-implied probability for that outcome.** Persistent high pressure over the central Mediterranean continues to favor subsidence warming and clear skies across the Po Valley, while the urban heat-island effect in Milan adds 1–2 °C locally. Recent model runs show limited spread between 33 °C and 35 °C, consistent with the near-equal 23.5 % odds on those bins, as any slight shift in the 850 hPa ridge or timing of a weak frontal passage could tip the daily high by one degree. Historical August maxima in Milan average 28–30 °C, so the current elevated baseline reflects the lingering influence of the early-August heatwave, though guidance indicates modest moderation by the 9th. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow 33–35 °C window most heavily ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$7,808End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS place Milan’s maximum temperature on August 9 near 34 °C, driving the 44.5 % market-implied probability for that outcome.** Persistent high pressure over the central Mediterranean continues to favor subsidence warming and clear skies across the Po Valley, while the urban heat-island effect in Milan adds 1–2 °C locally. Recent model runs show limited spread between 33 °C and 35 °C, consistent with the near-equal 23.5 % odds on those bins, as any slight shift in the 850 hPa ridge or timing of a weak frontal passage could tip the daily high by one degree. Historical August maxima in Milan average 28–30 °C, so the current elevated baseline reflects the lingering influence of the early-August heatwave, though guidance indicates modest moderation by the 9th. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow 33–35 °C window most heavily ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,808End Date
Aug 9, 2026Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS place Milan’s maximum temperature on August 9 near 34 °C, driving the 44.5 % market-implied probability for that outcome.** Persistent high pressure over the central Mediterranean continues to favor subsidence warming and clear skies across the Po Valley, while the urban heat-island effect in Milan adds 1–2 °C locally. Recent model runs show limited spread between 33 °C and 35 °C, consistent with the near-equal 23.5 % odds on those bins, as any slight shift in the 850 hPa ridge or timing of a weak frontal passage could tip the daily high by one degree. Historical August maxima in Milan average 28–30 °C, so the current elevated baseline reflects the lingering influence of the early-August heatwave, though guidance indicates modest moderation by the 9th. Traders are therefore weighting the narrow 33–35 °C window most heavily ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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