Persistent subtropical high pressure, clear skies, and strong midsummer solar insolation are driving forecast consensus for a Tel Aviv daily maximum of 33°C on August 13, positioning it as the market favorite at 56.5% implied probability. Numerical weather prediction models, including global ensembles, indicate conditions slightly above the mid-August climatological average of 30–32°C, with elevated regional sea-surface temperatures limiting overnight cooling and supporting heat retention along the coast. The 34°C outcome at 34.5% reflects minor ensemble spread in peak timing and intensity, while lower odds for 35°C or below align with the low likelihood of significant synoptic shifts before resolution. Traders are monitoring any late adjustments to official guidance from sources such as the Israel Meteorological Service ahead of the narrow two-day window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 13?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on August 13?
33°C 56%
34°C 35%
32°C 7%
35°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
7%
33°C
56%
34°C
35%
35°C
5%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
33°C 56%
34°C 35%
32°C 7%
35°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
29°C or below
$104 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$256 Vol.
1%
31°C
$49 Vol.
1%
32°C
$97 Vol.
7%
33°C
$294 Vol.
56%
34°C
$166 Vol.
35%
35°C
$103 Vol.
5%
36°C
$44 Vol.
1%
37°C
$90 Vol.
1%
38°C
$232 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$351 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent subtropical high pressure, clear skies, and strong midsummer solar insolation are driving forecast consensus for a Tel Aviv daily maximum of 33°C on August 13, positioning it as the market favorite at 56.5% implied probability. Numerical weather prediction models, including global ensembles, indicate conditions slightly above the mid-August climatological average of 30–32°C, with elevated regional sea-surface temperatures limiting overnight cooling and supporting heat retention along the coast. The 34°C outcome at 34.5% reflects minor ensemble spread in peak timing and intensity, while lower odds for 35°C or below align with the low likelihood of significant synoptic shifts before resolution. Traders are monitoring any late adjustments to official guidance from sources such as the Israel Meteorological Service ahead of the narrow two-day window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,786End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent subtropical high pressure, clear skies, and strong midsummer solar insolation are driving forecast consensus for a Tel Aviv daily maximum of 33°C on August 13, positioning it as the market favorite at 56.5% implied probability. Numerical weather prediction models, including global ensembles, indicate conditions slightly above the mid-August climatological average of 30–32°C, with elevated regional sea-surface temperatures limiting overnight cooling and supporting heat retention along the coast. The 34°C outcome at 34.5% reflects minor ensemble spread in peak timing and intensity, while lower odds for 35°C or below align with the low likelihood of significant synoptic shifts before resolution. Traders are monitoring any late adjustments to official guidance from sources such as the Israel Meteorological Service ahead of the narrow two-day window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,786End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent subtropical high pressure, clear skies, and strong midsummer solar insolation are driving forecast consensus for a Tel Aviv daily maximum of 33°C on August 13, positioning it as the market favorite at 56.5% implied probability. Numerical weather prediction models, including global ensembles, indicate conditions slightly above the mid-August climatological average of 30–32°C, with elevated regional sea-surface temperatures limiting overnight cooling and supporting heat retention along the coast. The 34°C outcome at 34.5% reflects minor ensemble spread in peak timing and intensity, while lower odds for 35°C or below align with the low likelihood of significant synoptic shifts before resolution. Traders are monitoring any late adjustments to official guidance from sources such as the Israel Meteorological Service ahead of the narrow two-day window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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