**Forecast models currently converge on a narrow range around 27–28°C for Istanbul’s daily maximum on August 13, 2026, with official guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and international ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) showing stable high-pressure conditions and persistent northerly flow.** This Black Sea-driven sea breeze supplies cooler marine air that caps afternoon peaks despite peak seasonal solar insolation. Recent short-range runs indicate daytime maxima near 27–29 °C (81–84 °F), with stronger gradient winds on the 13th expected to enhance mixing and limit the highest readings to the lower end of that band. Historical August climatology for Istanbul averages 28–29 °C, but the current pattern favors slight suppression relative to that baseline. Traders therefore assign nearly equal implied probabilities (39.5 % each) to 27 °C and 28 °C, reflecting genuine uncertainty between successive model cycles and the precise timing of peak temperature at the official station. The next significant updates—new 00Z and 12Z runs plus any MGM briefing—will likely resolve the narrow spread between these two leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 13?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 13?
27°C 40%
28°C 39%
26°C 11%
29°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
5%
26°C
11%
27°C
40%
28°C
39%
29°C
10%
30°C
3%
31°C
2%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 40%
28°C 39%
26°C 11%
29°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
23°C or below
$363 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$40 Vol.
1%
25°C
$111 Vol.
5%
26°C
$162 Vol.
11%
27°C
$349 Vol.
40%
28°C
$179 Vol.
39%
29°C
$51 Vol.
10%
30°C
$44 Vol.
3%
31°C
$21 Vol.
2%
32°C
$12 Vol.
1%
33°C or higher
$48 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models currently converge on a narrow range around 27–28°C for Istanbul’s daily maximum on August 13, 2026, with official guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and international ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) showing stable high-pressure conditions and persistent northerly flow.** This Black Sea-driven sea breeze supplies cooler marine air that caps afternoon peaks despite peak seasonal solar insolation. Recent short-range runs indicate daytime maxima near 27–29 °C (81–84 °F), with stronger gradient winds on the 13th expected to enhance mixing and limit the highest readings to the lower end of that band. Historical August climatology for Istanbul averages 28–29 °C, but the current pattern favors slight suppression relative to that baseline. Traders therefore assign nearly equal implied probabilities (39.5 % each) to 27 °C and 28 °C, reflecting genuine uncertainty between successive model cycles and the precise timing of peak temperature at the official station. The next significant updates—new 00Z and 12Z runs plus any MGM briefing—will likely resolve the narrow spread between these two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,380End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models currently converge on a narrow range around 27–28°C for Istanbul’s daily maximum on August 13, 2026, with official guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and international ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) showing stable high-pressure conditions and persistent northerly flow.** This Black Sea-driven sea breeze supplies cooler marine air that caps afternoon peaks despite peak seasonal solar insolation. Recent short-range runs indicate daytime maxima near 27–29 °C (81–84 °F), with stronger gradient winds on the 13th expected to enhance mixing and limit the highest readings to the lower end of that band. Historical August climatology for Istanbul averages 28–29 °C, but the current pattern favors slight suppression relative to that baseline. Traders therefore assign nearly equal implied probabilities (39.5 % each) to 27 °C and 28 °C, reflecting genuine uncertainty between successive model cycles and the precise timing of peak temperature at the official station. The next significant updates—new 00Z and 12Z runs plus any MGM briefing—will likely resolve the narrow spread between these two leading outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,380End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models currently converge on a narrow range around 27–28°C for Istanbul’s daily maximum on August 13, 2026, with official guidance from the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) and international ensembles (ECMWF, GFS) showing stable high-pressure conditions and persistent northerly flow.** This Black Sea-driven sea breeze supplies cooler marine air that caps afternoon peaks despite peak seasonal solar insolation. Recent short-range runs indicate daytime maxima near 27–29 °C (81–84 °F), with stronger gradient winds on the 13th expected to enhance mixing and limit the highest readings to the lower end of that band. Historical August climatology for Istanbul averages 28–29 °C, but the current pattern favors slight suppression relative to that baseline. Traders therefore assign nearly equal implied probabilities (39.5 % each) to 27 °C and 28 °C, reflecting genuine uncertainty between successive model cycles and the precise timing of peak temperature at the official station. The next significant updates—new 00Z and 12Z runs plus any MGM briefing—will likely resolve the narrow spread between these two leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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