Recent Japan Meteorological Agency and global model guidance indicate partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and a strengthening sea breeze for Tokyo on August 13, moderating the daily maximum near the climatological mid-August baseline of 30–32 °C. These conditions, combined with typical 70–80 % humidity and urban heat-island effects, have concentrated trader probabilities on 28 °C (35.5 %) and 29 °C (23.5 %), as afternoon cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing can readily trim or add 1–2 °C. Historical analogs show similar setups frequently produce highs in the upper 20s Celsius when convection develops, while any delay in shower onset would favor the low-30s tail. Updated model runs and JMA briefings through August 12 will remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 13?
28°C 36%
29°C 24%
27°C 21%
30°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
6%
27°C
21%
28°C
36%
29°C
24%
30°C
9%
31°C
4%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
1%
28°C 36%
29°C 24%
27°C 21%
30°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
23°C or below
$472 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$172 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$127 Vol.
1%
26°C
$240 Vol.
6%
27°C
$838 Vol.
21%
28°C
$819 Vol.
36%
29°C
$299 Vol.
24%
30°C
$262 Vol.
9%
31°C
$426 Vol.
4%
32°C
$329 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$1,465 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency and global model guidance indicate partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and a strengthening sea breeze for Tokyo on August 13, moderating the daily maximum near the climatological mid-August baseline of 30–32 °C. These conditions, combined with typical 70–80 % humidity and urban heat-island effects, have concentrated trader probabilities on 28 °C (35.5 %) and 29 °C (23.5 %), as afternoon cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing can readily trim or add 1–2 °C. Historical analogs show similar setups frequently produce highs in the upper 20s Celsius when convection develops, while any delay in shower onset would favor the low-30s tail. Updated model runs and JMA briefings through August 12 will remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$5,449End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency and global model guidance indicate partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and a strengthening sea breeze for Tokyo on August 13, moderating the daily maximum near the climatological mid-August baseline of 30–32 °C. These conditions, combined with typical 70–80 % humidity and urban heat-island effects, have concentrated trader probabilities on 28 °C (35.5 %) and 29 °C (23.5 %), as afternoon cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing can readily trim or add 1–2 °C. Historical analogs show similar setups frequently produce highs in the upper 20s Celsius when convection develops, while any delay in shower onset would favor the low-30s tail. Updated model runs and JMA briefings through August 12 will remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,449End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency and global model guidance indicate partly cloudy skies with scattered showers and a strengthening sea breeze for Tokyo on August 13, moderating the daily maximum near the climatological mid-August baseline of 30–32 °C. These conditions, combined with typical 70–80 % humidity and urban heat-island effects, have concentrated trader probabilities on 28 °C (35.5 %) and 29 °C (23.5 %), as afternoon cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing can readily trim or add 1–2 °C. Historical analogs show similar setups frequently produce highs in the upper 20s Celsius when convection develops, while any delay in shower onset would favor the low-30s tail. Updated model runs and JMA briefings through August 12 will remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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