Recent meteorological forecasts from agencies like the Pakistan Meteorological Department and models referenced by AccuWeather and the UK Met Office point to a highest temperature in Karachi on August 15 most likely falling in the 31–33°C range, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities. This positioning stems from the city’s coastal Arabian Sea location moderating extremes during peak monsoon conditions, where high humidity, cloud cover, and potential scattered rain or thunderstorms typically cap daytime maxima near the long-term August average of 32°C. Recent updates note above-normal temperatures overall for the plains but localized moisture incursions that can suppress peaks by 1–2°C through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. Short-term model consensus and historical variability in monsoon timing support the tight clustering around 31–33°C, with lower odds for outliers reflecting the low probability of clear, dry conditions or intense heat advection this close to the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Karachi on August 15?
Highest temperature in Karachi on August 15?
32°C 43%
33°C 23%
31°C 22%
34°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
5%
31°C
22%
32°C
43%
33°C
23%
34°C
7%
35°C
2%
36°C
5%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 43%
33°C 23%
31°C 22%
34°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
$77 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$13 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$284 Vol.
1%
30°C
$10 Vol.
5%
31°C
$164 Vol.
22%
32°C
$1,152 Vol.
43%
33°C
$231 Vol.
23%
34°C
$1 Vol.
7%
35°C
$37 Vol.
2%
36°C
$10 Vol.
5%
37°C or higher
$71 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological forecasts from agencies like the Pakistan Meteorological Department and models referenced by AccuWeather and the UK Met Office point to a highest temperature in Karachi on August 15 most likely falling in the 31–33°C range, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities. This positioning stems from the city’s coastal Arabian Sea location moderating extremes during peak monsoon conditions, where high humidity, cloud cover, and potential scattered rain or thunderstorms typically cap daytime maxima near the long-term August average of 32°C. Recent updates note above-normal temperatures overall for the plains but localized moisture incursions that can suppress peaks by 1–2°C through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. Short-term model consensus and historical variability in monsoon timing support the tight clustering around 31–33°C, with lower odds for outliers reflecting the low probability of clear, dry conditions or intense heat advection this close to the date.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$2,049End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological forecasts from agencies like the Pakistan Meteorological Department and models referenced by AccuWeather and the UK Met Office point to a highest temperature in Karachi on August 15 most likely falling in the 31–33°C range, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities. This positioning stems from the city’s coastal Arabian Sea location moderating extremes during peak monsoon conditions, where high humidity, cloud cover, and potential scattered rain or thunderstorms typically cap daytime maxima near the long-term August average of 32°C. Recent updates note above-normal temperatures overall for the plains but localized moisture incursions that can suppress peaks by 1–2°C through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. Short-term model consensus and historical variability in monsoon timing support the tight clustering around 31–33°C, with lower odds for outliers reflecting the low probability of clear, dry conditions or intense heat advection this close to the date.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Masroor Airbase Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Masroor Airbase Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,049End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pk/karachi/OPKCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent meteorological forecasts from agencies like the Pakistan Meteorological Department and models referenced by AccuWeather and the UK Met Office point to a highest temperature in Karachi on August 15 most likely falling in the 31–33°C range, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities. This positioning stems from the city’s coastal Arabian Sea location moderating extremes during peak monsoon conditions, where high humidity, cloud cover, and potential scattered rain or thunderstorms typically cap daytime maxima near the long-term August average of 32°C. Recent updates note above-normal temperatures overall for the plains but localized moisture incursions that can suppress peaks by 1–2°C through evaporative cooling and reduced insolation. Short-term model consensus and historical variability in monsoon timing support the tight clustering around 31–33°C, with lower odds for outliers reflecting the low probability of clear, dry conditions or intense heat advection this close to the date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions