Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble models show a marked cooldown for Paris on August 15, 2026, driven by increased cloud cover, potential thunderstorms, and northerly flow following an intense heatwave. Official guidance points to overnight minimum temperatures near 18–20°C, comfortably supporting the market’s 91% implied probability for 22°C or below. Historical August lows average 15–18°C, providing climatological context for this shift. The dominant outcome could be challenged only by unexpected model errors, such as delayed frontal passage or rapid high-pressure rebuilding that sustains warmer boundary-layer air. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS over the next 24 hours will be key decision points for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 15?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 15?
22°C or below 91%
23°C 7%
25°C 1.4%
24°C 1.0%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
91%
23°C
7%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
22°C or below 91%
23°C 7%
25°C 1.4%
24°C 1.0%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
$65 Vol.
91%
23°C
$91 Vol.
7%
24°C
$147 Vol.
1%
25°C
$44 Vol.
1%
26°C
$23 Vol.
1%
27°C
$23 Vol.
1%
28°C
$23 Vol.
1%
29°C
$28 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$23 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$133 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$18 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble models show a marked cooldown for Paris on August 15, 2026, driven by increased cloud cover, potential thunderstorms, and northerly flow following an intense heatwave. Official guidance points to overnight minimum temperatures near 18–20°C, comfortably supporting the market’s 91% implied probability for 22°C or below. Historical August lows average 15–18°C, providing climatological context for this shift. The dominant outcome could be challenged only by unexpected model errors, such as delayed frontal passage or rapid high-pressure rebuilding that sustains warmer boundary-layer air. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS over the next 24 hours will be key decision points for traders.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ET
Volume
$618End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble models show a marked cooldown for Paris on August 15, 2026, driven by increased cloud cover, potential thunderstorms, and northerly flow following an intense heatwave. Official guidance points to overnight minimum temperatures near 18–20°C, comfortably supporting the market’s 91% implied probability for 22°C or below. Historical August lows average 15–18°C, providing climatological context for this shift. The dominant outcome could be challenged only by unexpected model errors, such as delayed frontal passage or rapid high-pressure rebuilding that sustains warmer boundary-layer air. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS over the next 24 hours will be key decision points for traders.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$618End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble models show a marked cooldown for Paris on August 15, 2026, driven by increased cloud cover, potential thunderstorms, and northerly flow following an intense heatwave. Official guidance points to overnight minimum temperatures near 18–20°C, comfortably supporting the market’s 91% implied probability for 22°C or below. Historical August lows average 15–18°C, providing climatological context for this shift. The dominant outcome could be challenged only by unexpected model errors, such as delayed frontal passage or rapid high-pressure rebuilding that sustains warmer boundary-layer air. Updated runs from ECMWF and GFS over the next 24 hours will be key decision points for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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