Current numerical weather model consensus and recent observational trends in the Sichuan Basin point to a peak temperature near 35–37°C for August 15, driving the market’s tight clustering of implied probabilities around those outcomes. Subtropical high pressure and regional topography often trap heat and moisture, while variable cloud cover or scattered monsoon showers can suppress or enhance daytime maxima by 1–2°C. Historical August highs average 30–32°C but have trended warmer recently; short-range forecast uncertainty remains elevated until updated China Meteorological Administration guidance or ECMWF runs clarify steering patterns and insolation. Traders weigh these factors against the two-day horizon to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 15?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 15?
36°C 29%
37°C 22%
35°C 15%
34°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
4%
32°C
2%
33°C
6%
34°C
13%
35°C
15%
36°C
29%
37°C
22%
38°C
13%
39°C or higher
5%
36°C 29%
37°C 22%
35°C 15%
34°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
29°C or below
$1,472 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$17 Vol.
1%
31°C
$10 Vol.
4%
32°C
$97 Vol.
2%
33°C
$55 Vol.
6%
34°C
$89 Vol.
13%
35°C
$55 Vol.
15%
36°C
$101 Vol.
29%
37°C
$137 Vol.
22%
38°C
$17 Vol.
13%
39°C or higher
$44 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather model consensus and recent observational trends in the Sichuan Basin point to a peak temperature near 35–37°C for August 15, driving the market’s tight clustering of implied probabilities around those outcomes. Subtropical high pressure and regional topography often trap heat and moisture, while variable cloud cover or scattered monsoon showers can suppress or enhance daytime maxima by 1–2°C. Historical August highs average 30–32°C but have trended warmer recently; short-range forecast uncertainty remains elevated until updated China Meteorological Administration guidance or ECMWF runs clarify steering patterns and insolation. Traders weigh these factors against the two-day horizon to resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,095End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather model consensus and recent observational trends in the Sichuan Basin point to a peak temperature near 35–37°C for August 15, driving the market’s tight clustering of implied probabilities around those outcomes. Subtropical high pressure and regional topography often trap heat and moisture, while variable cloud cover or scattered monsoon showers can suppress or enhance daytime maxima by 1–2°C. Historical August highs average 30–32°C but have trended warmer recently; short-range forecast uncertainty remains elevated until updated China Meteorological Administration guidance or ECMWF runs clarify steering patterns and insolation. Traders weigh these factors against the two-day horizon to resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,095End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather model consensus and recent observational trends in the Sichuan Basin point to a peak temperature near 35–37°C for August 15, driving the market’s tight clustering of implied probabilities around those outcomes. Subtropical high pressure and regional topography often trap heat and moisture, while variable cloud cover or scattered monsoon showers can suppress or enhance daytime maxima by 1–2°C. Historical August highs average 30–32°C but have trended warmer recently; short-range forecast uncertainty remains elevated until updated China Meteorological Administration guidance or ECMWF runs clarify steering patterns and insolation. Traders weigh these factors against the two-day horizon to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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