Traders have converged on 31°C as the market-implied outcome for Lucknow’s highest temperature on August 16 because official India Meteorological Department observations and multiple forecast models, including recent runs from regional centers, consistently project a daytime maximum near that threshold amid typical monsoon conditions. Persistent cloud cover, scattered light rain showers, and high humidity have suppressed stronger heating, keeping temperatures aligned with climatological August averages around 32°C while preventing spikes seen in drier periods. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects real-time data from Lucknow Airport and surrounding stations showing afternoon readings stabilizing near 31°C. Realistic challenges remain limited to late-day measurement revisions or localized variability in official reporting, though current atmospheric stability and model agreement make such shifts unlikely before final verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Lucknow on August 16?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on August 16?
31°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$29,014 Vol.
$29,014 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
Yes
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
31°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$29,014 Vol.
$29,014 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
$329 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,926 Vol.
No
29°C
$4,068 Vol.
No
30°C
$4,330 Vol.
No
31°C
$3,852 Vol.
Yes
32°C
$5,861 Vol.
No
33°C
$3,381 Vol.
No
34°C
$3,312 Vol.
No
35°C
$945 Vol.
No
36°C
$766 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$243 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on 31°C as the market-implied outcome for Lucknow’s highest temperature on August 16 because official India Meteorological Department observations and multiple forecast models, including recent runs from regional centers, consistently project a daytime maximum near that threshold amid typical monsoon conditions. Persistent cloud cover, scattered light rain showers, and high humidity have suppressed stronger heating, keeping temperatures aligned with climatological August averages around 32°C while preventing spikes seen in drier periods. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects real-time data from Lucknow Airport and surrounding stations showing afternoon readings stabilizing near 31°C. Realistic challenges remain limited to late-day measurement revisions or localized variability in official reporting, though current atmospheric stability and model agreement make such shifts unlikely before final verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$29,014End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on 31°C as the market-implied outcome for Lucknow’s highest temperature on August 16 because official India Meteorological Department observations and multiple forecast models, including recent runs from regional centers, consistently project a daytime maximum near that threshold amid typical monsoon conditions. Persistent cloud cover, scattered light rain showers, and high humidity have suppressed stronger heating, keeping temperatures aligned with climatological August averages around 32°C while preventing spikes seen in drier periods. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects real-time data from Lucknow Airport and surrounding stations showing afternoon readings stabilizing near 31°C. Realistic challenges remain limited to late-day measurement revisions or localized variability in official reporting, though current atmospheric stability and model agreement make such shifts unlikely before final verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$29,014End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Traders have converged on 31°C as the market-implied outcome for Lucknow’s highest temperature on August 16 because official India Meteorological Department observations and multiple forecast models, including recent runs from regional centers, consistently project a daytime maximum near that threshold amid typical monsoon conditions. Persistent cloud cover, scattered light rain showers, and high humidity have suppressed stronger heating, keeping temperatures aligned with climatological August averages around 32°C while preventing spikes seen in drier periods. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects real-time data from Lucknow Airport and surrounding stations showing afternoon readings stabilizing near 31°C. Realistic challenges remain limited to late-day measurement revisions or localized variability in official reporting, though current atmospheric stability and model agreement make such shifts unlikely before final verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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