**Trader consensus has consolidated at 100% implied probability on a 104-105°F high for Austin on August 22 because official station observations aligned with National Weather Service forecasts under a persistent upper-level ridge.** Clear skies, strong southerly flow, and minimal afternoon moisture limited any cooling, allowing temperatures to peak in that narrow range amid an ongoing heat wave that had already produced multiple 102-104°F days earlier in August. Historical averages for the date hover near 96°F, highlighting the anomalous conditions driven by the ridge. Resolution depends on verified maximum readings at primary sites such as Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry; while model spreads were tight around 102-106°F, post-event data eliminated adjacent bins, leaving negligible probability for outcomes outside 104-105°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 22?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 22?
104-105°F 100.0%
95°F or below <1%
96-97°F <1%
98-99°F <1%
$19,621 Vol.
$19,621 Vol.
Aug 22, 2026
95°F or below
No
96-97°F
No
98-99°F
No
100-101°F
No
102-103°F
No
104-105°F
Yes
106-107°F
No
108-109°F
No
110-111°F
No
112-113°F
No
114°F or higher
No
104-105°F 100.0%
95°F or below <1%
96-97°F <1%
98-99°F <1%
$19,621 Vol.
$19,621 Vol.
Aug 22, 2026
95°F or below
$60 Vol.
No
96-97°F
$140 Vol.
No
98-99°F
$170 Vol.
No
100-101°F
$1,967 Vol.
No
102-103°F
$4,172 Vol.
No
104-105°F
$6,691 Vol.
Yes
106-107°F
$3,979 Vol.
No
108-109°F
$1,756 Vol.
No
110-111°F
$250 Vol.
No
112-113°F
$284 Vol.
No
114°F or higher
$153 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has consolidated at 100% implied probability on a 104-105°F high for Austin on August 22 because official station observations aligned with National Weather Service forecasts under a persistent upper-level ridge.** Clear skies, strong southerly flow, and minimal afternoon moisture limited any cooling, allowing temperatures to peak in that narrow range amid an ongoing heat wave that had already produced multiple 102-104°F days earlier in August. Historical averages for the date hover near 96°F, highlighting the anomalous conditions driven by the ridge. Resolution depends on verified maximum readings at primary sites such as Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry; while model spreads were tight around 102-106°F, post-event data eliminated adjacent bins, leaving negligible probability for outcomes outside 104-105°F.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$19,621End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has consolidated at 100% implied probability on a 104-105°F high for Austin on August 22 because official station observations aligned with National Weather Service forecasts under a persistent upper-level ridge.** Clear skies, strong southerly flow, and minimal afternoon moisture limited any cooling, allowing temperatures to peak in that narrow range amid an ongoing heat wave that had already produced multiple 102-104°F days earlier in August. Historical averages for the date hover near 96°F, highlighting the anomalous conditions driven by the ridge. Resolution depends on verified maximum readings at primary sites such as Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry; while model spreads were tight around 102-106°F, post-event data eliminated adjacent bins, leaving negligible probability for outcomes outside 104-105°F.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$19,621End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus has consolidated at 100% implied probability on a 104-105°F high for Austin on August 22 because official station observations aligned with National Weather Service forecasts under a persistent upper-level ridge.** Clear skies, strong southerly flow, and minimal afternoon moisture limited any cooling, allowing temperatures to peak in that narrow range amid an ongoing heat wave that had already produced multiple 102-104°F days earlier in August. Historical averages for the date hover near 96°F, highlighting the anomalous conditions driven by the ridge. Resolution depends on verified maximum readings at primary sites such as Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry; while model spreads were tight around 102-106°F, post-event data eliminated adjacent bins, leaving negligible probability for outcomes outside 104-105°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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