Recent National Weather Service normals place Chicago’s August 25 high near 81.5°F, with ensemble and long-range guidance from AccuWeather and others converging on 77–81°F amid scattered thunderstorms and moderating southwesterly flow. Lake Michigan’s cool, stable boundary layer and potential afternoon cloud cover or precipitation are suppressing peak heating, keeping warmer bins (82°F+) under 15% combined implied probability. Traders have positioned the 80–81°F and 78–79°F outcomes at 47% and 32% respectively, reflecting model consensus around near-normal conditions with limited upside from stronger mixing or clearer skies. Updated short-range runs tomorrow morning remain the key catalyst that could shift marginal probability toward adjacent bins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月25日芝加哥的最高温度？
8月25日芝加哥的最高温度？
80-81°F 47%
78-79°F 33%
82-83°F 12%
76-77°F 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-25
71°F或以下
4%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
10%
78-79°F
33%
80-81°F
47%
82-83°F
12%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
6%
88-89°F
6%
90°F或更高
6%
80-81°F 47%
78-79°F 33%
82-83°F 12%
76-77°F 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-25
71°F或以下
$5 交易量
4%
72-73°F
$10 交易量
2%
74-75°F
$41 交易量
3%
76-77°F
$5 交易量
10%
78-79°F
$5 交易量
33%
80-81°F
$309 交易量
47%
82-83°F
$13 交易量
12%
84-85°F
$50 交易量
7%
86-87°F
$10 交易量
6%
88-89°F
$10 交易量
6%
90°F或更高
$5 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service normals place Chicago’s August 25 high near 81.5°F, with ensemble and long-range guidance from AccuWeather and others converging on 77–81°F amid scattered thunderstorms and moderating southwesterly flow. Lake Michigan’s cool, stable boundary layer and potential afternoon cloud cover or precipitation are suppressing peak heating, keeping warmer bins (82°F+) under 15% combined implied probability. Traders have positioned the 80–81°F and 78–79°F outcomes at 47% and 32% respectively, reflecting model consensus around near-normal conditions with limited upside from stronger mixing or clearer skies. Updated short-range runs tomorrow morning remain the key catalyst that could shift marginal probability toward adjacent bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
交易量
$455结束日期
2026-08-25市场开放时间
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service normals place Chicago’s August 25 high near 81.5°F, with ensemble and long-range guidance from AccuWeather and others converging on 77–81°F amid scattered thunderstorms and moderating southwesterly flow. Lake Michigan’s cool, stable boundary layer and potential afternoon cloud cover or precipitation are suppressing peak heating, keeping warmer bins (82°F+) under 15% combined implied probability. Traders have positioned the 80–81°F and 78–79°F outcomes at 47% and 32% respectively, reflecting model consensus around near-normal conditions with limited upside from stronger mixing or clearer skies. Updated short-range runs tomorrow morning remain the key catalyst that could shift marginal probability toward adjacent bins.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$455结束日期
2026-08-25市场开放时间
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETRecent National Weather Service normals place Chicago’s August 25 high near 81.5°F, with ensemble and long-range guidance from AccuWeather and others converging on 77–81°F amid scattered thunderstorms and moderating southwesterly flow. Lake Michigan’s cool, stable boundary layer and potential afternoon cloud cover or precipitation are suppressing peak heating, keeping warmer bins (82°F+) under 15% combined implied probability. Traders have positioned the 80–81°F and 78–79°F outcomes at 47% and 32% respectively, reflecting model consensus around near-normal conditions with limited upside from stronger mixing or clearer skies. Updated short-range runs tomorrow morning remain the key catalyst that could shift marginal probability toward adjacent bins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题