Latest numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, indicate a highest temperature in Paris on August 25 most likely between 26–27°C under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and light southerly winds. This range aligns with the closely matched 33.5% market-implied odds for both outcomes, reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty from timing of cloud cover and any convective development that could suppress or briefly enhance afternoon heating. Recent model runs show limited warming potential relative to the 24.5°C climatological average, while probabilities drop sharply for 28°C or higher due to expected moisture and reduced insolation. Updated guidance ahead of the 24-hour window will likely tighten the distribution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月25日のパリの最高気温は？
8月25日のパリの最高気温は？
26°C 34%
27°C 31%
28°C 19%
25°C 9%
新規
新規
2026/08/25
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
6%
25°C
9%
26°C
34%
27°C
31%
28°C
19%
29°C
9%
30°C
5%
31°C
3%
32°C or higher
3%
26°C 34%
27°C 31%
28°C 19%
25°C 9%
新規
新規
2026/08/25
22°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$8 Vol.
2%
24°C
$15 Vol.
6%
25°C
$15 Vol.
9%
26°C
$112 Vol.
34%
27°C
$202 Vol.
31%
28°C
$30 Vol.
19%
29°C
$67 Vol.
9%
30°C
$44 Vol.
5%
31°C
$5 Vol.
3%
32°C or higher
$5 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, indicate a highest temperature in Paris on August 25 most likely between 26–27°C under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and light southerly winds. This range aligns with the closely matched 33.5% market-implied odds for both outcomes, reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty from timing of cloud cover and any convective development that could suppress or briefly enhance afternoon heating. Recent model runs show limited warming potential relative to the 24.5°C climatological average, while probabilities drop sharply for 28°C or higher due to expected moisture and reduced insolation. Updated guidance ahead of the 24-hour window will likely tighten the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
音量
$509終了日
2026/08/25マーケット開始日
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, indicate a highest temperature in Paris on August 25 most likely between 26–27°C under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and light southerly winds. This range aligns with the closely matched 33.5% market-implied odds for both outcomes, reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty from timing of cloud cover and any convective development that could suppress or briefly enhance afternoon heating. Recent model runs show limited warming potential relative to the 24.5°C climatological average, while probabilities drop sharply for 28°C or higher due to expected moisture and reduced insolation. Updated guidance ahead of the 24-hour window will likely tighten the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$509終了日
2026/08/25マーケット開始日
Aug 23, 2026, 12:56 AM ETLatest numerical weather prediction models, including ECMWF and GFS ensembles, indicate a highest temperature in Paris on August 25 most likely between 26–27°C under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and light southerly winds. This range aligns with the closely matched 33.5% market-implied odds for both outcomes, reflecting genuine forecast uncertainty from timing of cloud cover and any convective development that could suppress or briefly enhance afternoon heating. Recent model runs show limited warming potential relative to the 24.5°C climatological average, while probabilities drop sharply for 28°C or higher due to expected moisture and reduced insolation. Updated guidance ahead of the 24-hour window will likely tighten the distribution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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