Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and international agencies show strong consensus for a daily maximum of 33°C in Shenzhen on August 23, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure, light southerly flow, and typical August humidity levels that limit extreme deviations. This aligns with climatological baselines where late-August highs cluster near 32°C, with observational data from recent days confirming similar boundary-layer conditions. The 99.5% implied probability for 33°C reflects traders' assessment of minimal model spread and low risk of significant convective cooling or advection shifts. A rapid intensification of monsoon thunderstorms or unexpected wind changes could still push the peak below this threshold before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月23日の深センの最高気温は?
33°C 99.6%
34°C <1%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
$49,562 Vol.
$49,562 Vol.
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
100%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
33°C 99.6%
34°C <1%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
$49,562 Vol.
$49,562 Vol.
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
100%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and international agencies show strong consensus for a daily maximum of 33°C in Shenzhen on August 23, driven by persistent subtropical high pressure, light southerly flow, and typical August humidity levels that limit extreme deviations. This aligns with climatological baselines where late-August highs cluster near 32°C, with observational data from recent days confirming similar boundary-layer conditions. The 99.5% implied probability for 33°C reflects traders' assessment of minimal model spread and low risk of significant convective cooling or advection shifts. A rapid intensification of monsoon thunderstorms or unexpected wind changes could still push the peak below this threshold before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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