Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for August 23 indicate persistent cloud cover and scattered showers across the Tokyo region, which reduce incoming solar radiation and limit afternoon heating. Ensemble models reinforce this pattern, keeping the daily maximum near the seasonal normal of 30.5 °C at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station. These atmospheric conditions explain why traders assign a combined 97 % implied probability to 30 °C or 31 °C while assigning negligible odds to 32 °C or higher. Updated model runs later today could shift probabilities if skies clear earlier than expected or if convection develops more intensely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月23日の東京の最高気温は?
31°C 56%
30°C 32%
32°C 3%
33°C <1%
$40,248 Vol.
$40,248 Vol.
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
38%
31°C
56%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 56%
30°C 32%
32°C 3%
33°C <1%
$40,248 Vol.
$40,248 Vol.
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
38%
31°C
56%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Aug 21, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for August 23 indicate persistent cloud cover and scattered showers across the Tokyo region, which reduce incoming solar radiation and limit afternoon heating. Ensemble models reinforce this pattern, keeping the daily maximum near the seasonal normal of 30.5 °C at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station. These atmospheric conditions explain why traders assign a combined 97 % implied probability to 30 °C or 31 °C while assigning negligible odds to 32 °C or higher. Updated model runs later today could shift probabilities if skies clear earlier than expected or if convection develops more intensely.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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