Current forecast model consensus from major global ensembles points to a Moscow high temperature on August 4 clustering around 25–27°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow, which explains why those three outcomes together command roughly 78% of market-implied probability. Subtle differences among runs hinge on the timing and extent of daytime cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal passage that could trim or boost peak heating by 1–2°C. With resolution only two days away, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model updates most heavily while recognizing that small shifts in insolation or advection remain possible before the daily maximum is officially recorded.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月4日のモスクワの最高気温は？
8月4日のモスクワの最高気温は？
26°C 37%
25°C 28%
27°C 19%
24°C 18%
新規
新規
2026/08/04
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
1%
22°C
4%
23°C
9%
24°C
18%
25°C
28%
26°C
32%
27°C
19%
28°C
3%
29°C
3%
30°C or higher
2%
26°C 37%
25°C 28%
27°C 19%
24°C 18%
新規
新規
2026/08/04
20°C or below
$5 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$15 Vol.
1%
22°C
$74 Vol.
4%
23°C
$30 Vol.
9%
24°C
$0 Vol.
18%
25°C
$0 Vol.
28%
26°C
$13 Vol.
32%
27°C
$0 Vol.
19%
28°C
$14 Vol.
3%
29°C
$20 Vol.
3%
30°C or higher
$32 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast model consensus from major global ensembles points to a Moscow high temperature on August 4 clustering around 25–27°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow, which explains why those three outcomes together command roughly 78% of market-implied probability. Subtle differences among runs hinge on the timing and extent of daytime cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal passage that could trim or boost peak heating by 1–2°C. With resolution only two days away, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model updates most heavily while recognizing that small shifts in insolation or advection remain possible before the daily maximum is officially recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
音量
$204終了日
2026/08/04マーケット開始日
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast model consensus from major global ensembles points to a Moscow high temperature on August 4 clustering around 25–27°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow, which explains why those three outcomes together command roughly 78% of market-implied probability. Subtle differences among runs hinge on the timing and extent of daytime cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal passage that could trim or boost peak heating by 1–2°C. With resolution only two days away, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model updates most heavily while recognizing that small shifts in insolation or advection remain possible before the daily maximum is officially recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$204終了日
2026/08/04マーケット開始日
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast model consensus from major global ensembles points to a Moscow high temperature on August 4 clustering around 25–27°C under partly cloudy skies and moderate westerly flow, which explains why those three outcomes together command roughly 78% of market-implied probability. Subtle differences among runs hinge on the timing and extent of daytime cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any weak frontal passage that could trim or boost peak heating by 1–2°C. With resolution only two days away, traders are weighting the latest high-resolution model updates most heavily while recognizing that small shifts in insolation or advection remain possible before the daily maximum is officially recorded.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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