**Mild overnight conditions under cloudy skies and a warm, humid air mass are keeping the lowest temperature in Paris on August 26 centered on 18–19°C.** Multiple short-range forecasts from Météo-France-aligned sources and international models show early-morning readings bottoming out near 18°C after a day of 26–28°C highs, with limited nocturnal radiative cooling due to persistent cloud cover and light southerly or easterly flow. Dew points remaining in the mid-to-upper teens further suppress temperature drops, while the urban heat-island effect in central Paris adds a small positive bias relative to rural sites. Recent model runs have shown only minor shifts in the overnight minimum, with ensembles clustering tightly around 18–19°C rather than the cooler 16–17°C values seen earlier in the week. The 33% market-implied probability on 18°C versus 26.5% on 19°C therefore reflects the narrow but real uncertainty in exact clearing timing, wind speed, and station-specific measurement, typical for a single-night temperature market where small forecast adjustments can swing the outcome between adjacent degree thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 26?
18°C 34%
19°C 28%
17°C 14%
16°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
14°C or below
2%
15°C
8%
16°C
12%
17°C
14%
18°C
34%
19°C
28%
20°C
10%
21°C
5%
22°C
4%
23°C
7%
24°C or higher
2%
18°C 34%
19°C 28%
17°C 14%
16°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
14°C or below
$165 Vol.
2%
15°C
$151 Vol.
8%
16°C
$9 Vol.
12%
17°C
$134 Vol.
14%
18°C
$698 Vol.
34%
19°C
$120 Vol.
28%
20°C
$0 Vol.
10%
21°C
$40 Vol.
5%
22°C
$121 Vol.
4%
23°C
$5 Vol.
7%
24°C or higher
$45 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Mild overnight conditions under cloudy skies and a warm, humid air mass are keeping the lowest temperature in Paris on August 26 centered on 18–19°C.** Multiple short-range forecasts from Météo-France-aligned sources and international models show early-morning readings bottoming out near 18°C after a day of 26–28°C highs, with limited nocturnal radiative cooling due to persistent cloud cover and light southerly or easterly flow.
Dew points remaining in the mid-to-upper teens further suppress temperature drops, while the urban heat-island effect in central Paris adds a small positive bias relative to rural sites. Recent model runs have shown only minor shifts in the overnight minimum, with ensembles clustering tightly around 18–19°C rather than the cooler 16–17°C values seen earlier in the week.
The 33% market-implied probability on 18°C versus 26.5% on 19°C therefore reflects the narrow but real uncertainty in exact clearing timing, wind speed, and station-specific measurement, typical for a single-night temperature market where small forecast adjustments can swing the outcome between adjacent degree thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,488End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Mild overnight conditions under cloudy skies and a warm, humid air mass are keeping the lowest temperature in Paris on August 26 centered on 18–19°C.** Multiple short-range forecasts from Météo-France-aligned sources and international models show early-morning readings bottoming out near 18°C after a day of 26–28°C highs, with limited nocturnal radiative cooling due to persistent cloud cover and light southerly or easterly flow.
Dew points remaining in the mid-to-upper teens further suppress temperature drops, while the urban heat-island effect in central Paris adds a small positive bias relative to rural sites. Recent model runs have shown only minor shifts in the overnight minimum, with ensembles clustering tightly around 18–19°C rather than the cooler 16–17°C values seen earlier in the week.
The 33% market-implied probability on 18°C versus 26.5% on 19°C therefore reflects the narrow but real uncertainty in exact clearing timing, wind speed, and station-specific measurement, typical for a single-night temperature market where small forecast adjustments can swing the outcome between adjacent degree thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,488End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Mild overnight conditions under cloudy skies and a warm, humid air mass are keeping the lowest temperature in Paris on August 26 centered on 18–19°C.** Multiple short-range forecasts from Météo-France-aligned sources and international models show early-morning readings bottoming out near 18°C after a day of 26–28°C highs, with limited nocturnal radiative cooling due to persistent cloud cover and light southerly or easterly flow. Dew points remaining in the mid-to-upper teens further suppress temperature drops, while the urban heat-island effect in central Paris adds a small positive bias relative to rural sites. Recent model runs have shown only minor shifts in the overnight minimum, with ensembles clustering tightly around 18–19°C rather than the cooler 16–17°C values seen earlier in the week. The 33% market-implied probability on 18°C versus 26.5% on 19°C therefore reflects the narrow but real uncertainty in exact clearing timing, wind speed, and station-specific measurement, typical for a single-night temperature market where small forecast adjustments can swing the outcome between adjacent degree thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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