Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and the ECMWF indicate Paris maximum temperatures on August 26 will likely fall between 27–30°C under variable cloud cover and light easterly flow that moderates daytime heating while limiting full solar insolation. This model consensus, with narrow spreads around 28–29°C, drives the market’s heaviest implied probabilities on those outcomes as traders weigh the balance between partial clearing that could push readings to 30°C and increased moisture or overcast conditions favoring the lower end of the range. Historical late-August climatology supports this band following earlier seasonal peaks, with resolution hinging on the final observed high at official stations. New model runs and morning updates tomorrow will provide the next key data points for refining these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 26?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 26?
29°C 37%
28°C 22%
30°C 21%
27°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
3%
27°C
7%
28°C
22%
29°C
37%
30°C
21%
31°C
6%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
<1%
29°C 37%
28°C 22%
30°C 21%
27°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
23°C or below
$174 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$54 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$96 Vol.
2%
26°C
$385 Vol.
3%
27°C
$1,578 Vol.
7%
28°C
$1,234 Vol.
22%
29°C
$1,131 Vol.
37%
30°C
$451 Vol.
21%
31°C
$11 Vol.
6%
32°C
$106 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$2 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and the ECMWF indicate Paris maximum temperatures on August 26 will likely fall between 27–30°C under variable cloud cover and light easterly flow that moderates daytime heating while limiting full solar insolation. This model consensus, with narrow spreads around 28–29°C, drives the market’s heaviest implied probabilities on those outcomes as traders weigh the balance between partial clearing that could push readings to 30°C and increased moisture or overcast conditions favoring the lower end of the range. Historical late-August climatology supports this band following earlier seasonal peaks, with resolution hinging on the final observed high at official stations. New model runs and morning updates tomorrow will provide the next key data points for refining these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$5,222End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and the ECMWF indicate Paris maximum temperatures on August 26 will likely fall between 27–30°C under variable cloud cover and light easterly flow that moderates daytime heating while limiting full solar insolation. This model consensus, with narrow spreads around 28–29°C, drives the market’s heaviest implied probabilities on those outcomes as traders weigh the balance between partial clearing that could push readings to 30°C and increased moisture or overcast conditions favoring the lower end of the range. Historical late-August climatology supports this band following earlier seasonal peaks, with resolution hinging on the final observed high at official stations. New model runs and morning updates tomorrow will provide the next key data points for refining these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,222End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and the ECMWF indicate Paris maximum temperatures on August 26 will likely fall between 27–30°C under variable cloud cover and light easterly flow that moderates daytime heating while limiting full solar insolation. This model consensus, with narrow spreads around 28–29°C, drives the market’s heaviest implied probabilities on those outcomes as traders weigh the balance between partial clearing that could push readings to 30°C and increased moisture or overcast conditions favoring the lower end of the range. Historical late-August climatology supports this band following earlier seasonal peaks, with resolution hinging on the final observed high at official stations. New model runs and morning updates tomorrow will provide the next key data points for refining these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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