**Forecast models from MetService and NIWA indicate a daytime high near 15°C for Wellington on August 26, 2026, with traders heavily favoring 15–16°C outcomes.** Short-term guidance shows northwesterlies or a developing winter storm from the Tasman Sea potentially advecting milder air ahead of showers, pushing maxima into the mid-teens Celsius while keeping conditions near the August climatological average of roughly 12–13°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures across the Wellington region through August, consistent with the market-implied range and limiting upside to 17°C or higher. Model consensus and the timing of the frontal system relative to peak daytime heating appear to be the dominant drivers anchoring sentiment around these narrow thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on August 26?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 26?
16°C 61%
15°C 33%
17°C 7%
14°C 1.6%
NEW
$20,706 Vol.
NEW
$20,706 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
33%
16°C
61%
17°C
7%
18°C
2%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
16°C 61%
15°C 33%
17°C 7%
14°C 1.6%
NEW
$20,706 Vol.
NEW
$20,706 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
10°C or below
$1,332 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$289 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$1,333 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$239 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,671 Vol.
2%
15°C
$6,457 Vol.
33%
16°C
$3,912 Vol.
61%
17°C
$3,606 Vol.
7%
18°C
$1,636 Vol.
2%
19°C
$252 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$269 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from MetService and NIWA indicate a daytime high near 15°C for Wellington on August 26, 2026, with traders heavily favoring 15–16°C outcomes.** Short-term guidance shows northwesterlies or a developing winter storm from the Tasman Sea potentially advecting milder air ahead of showers, pushing maxima into the mid-teens Celsius while keeping conditions near the August climatological average of roughly 12–13°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures across the Wellington region through August, consistent with the market-implied range and limiting upside to 17°C or higher. Model consensus and the timing of the frontal system relative to peak daytime heating appear to be the dominant drivers anchoring sentiment around these narrow thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$20,706End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from MetService and NIWA indicate a daytime high near 15°C for Wellington on August 26, 2026, with traders heavily favoring 15–16°C outcomes.** Short-term guidance shows northwesterlies or a developing winter storm from the Tasman Sea potentially advecting milder air ahead of showers, pushing maxima into the mid-teens Celsius while keeping conditions near the August climatological average of roughly 12–13°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures across the Wellington region through August, consistent with the market-implied range and limiting upside to 17°C or higher. Model consensus and the timing of the frontal system relative to peak daytime heating appear to be the dominant drivers anchoring sentiment around these narrow thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$20,706End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from MetService and NIWA indicate a daytime high near 15°C for Wellington on August 26, 2026, with traders heavily favoring 15–16°C outcomes.** Short-term guidance shows northwesterlies or a developing winter storm from the Tasman Sea potentially advecting milder air ahead of showers, pushing maxima into the mid-teens Celsius while keeping conditions near the August climatological average of roughly 12–13°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures across the Wellington region through August, consistent with the market-implied range and limiting upside to 17°C or higher. Model consensus and the timing of the frontal system relative to peak daytime heating appear to be the dominant drivers anchoring sentiment around these narrow thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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