Persistent onshore southwest flow and a deep marine layer, reinforced by upper-level troughing, are keeping San Francisco temperatures well below seasonal normals and capping the daily maximum near 67–69°F on August 14. National Weather Service guidance and private models converge on partly to mostly cloudy skies with breezy conditions that limit solar heating, while recent observations show highs in the mid-to-upper 60s. Trader emphasis on the 68–69°F bin reflects this narrow forecast window, with modest probability spread across adjacent ranges driven by uncertainty in exact marine-layer clearing timing and any late-day warming. Historical August averages near 70°F underscore how atypical the current synoptic pattern remains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on August 14?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 14?
68-69°F 36%
66-67°F 27%
70-71°F 16%
64-65°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
3%
62-63°F
4%
64-65°F
12%
66-67°F
27%
68-69°F
36%
70-71°F
16%
72-73°F
6%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
68-69°F 36%
66-67°F 27%
70-71°F 16%
64-65°F 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
59°F or below
$281 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$109 Vol.
3%
62-63°F
$339 Vol.
4%
64-65°F
$266 Vol.
12%
66-67°F
$1,456 Vol.
27%
68-69°F
$164 Vol.
36%
70-71°F
$389 Vol.
16%
72-73°F
$322 Vol.
6%
74-75°F
$342 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$22 Vol.
<1%
78°F or higher
$281 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent onshore southwest flow and a deep marine layer, reinforced by upper-level troughing, are keeping San Francisco temperatures well below seasonal normals and capping the daily maximum near 67–69°F on August 14. National Weather Service guidance and private models converge on partly to mostly cloudy skies with breezy conditions that limit solar heating, while recent observations show highs in the mid-to-upper 60s. Trader emphasis on the 68–69°F bin reflects this narrow forecast window, with modest probability spread across adjacent ranges driven by uncertainty in exact marine-layer clearing timing and any late-day warming. Historical August averages near 70°F underscore how atypical the current synoptic pattern remains.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$3,972End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent onshore southwest flow and a deep marine layer, reinforced by upper-level troughing, are keeping San Francisco temperatures well below seasonal normals and capping the daily maximum near 67–69°F on August 14. National Weather Service guidance and private models converge on partly to mostly cloudy skies with breezy conditions that limit solar heating, while recent observations show highs in the mid-to-upper 60s. Trader emphasis on the 68–69°F bin reflects this narrow forecast window, with modest probability spread across adjacent ranges driven by uncertainty in exact marine-layer clearing timing and any late-day warming. Historical August averages near 70°F underscore how atypical the current synoptic pattern remains.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the San Francisco International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,972End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent onshore southwest flow and a deep marine layer, reinforced by upper-level troughing, are keeping San Francisco temperatures well below seasonal normals and capping the daily maximum near 67–69°F on August 14. National Weather Service guidance and private models converge on partly to mostly cloudy skies with breezy conditions that limit solar heating, while recent observations show highs in the mid-to-upper 60s. Trader emphasis on the 68–69°F bin reflects this narrow forecast window, with modest probability spread across adjacent ranges driven by uncertainty in exact marine-layer clearing timing and any late-day warming. Historical August averages near 70°F underscore how atypical the current synoptic pattern remains.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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