Persistent subtropical high pressure over the region, combined with weak steering flow in the Sichuan Basin and elevated humidity that restricts overnight cooling, has driven official forecast guidance toward a daily maximum near 37°C for Chongqing on August 16. This consensus aligns with historical August patterns of 35–40°C highs under similar synoptic setups and matches recent model runs from meteorological agencies. The 100% market-implied probability for 37°C reflects strong trader alignment with these data. A sudden increase in cloud cover, localized convective rainfall, or a late forecast revision from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration could realistically shift the observed peak lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chongqing on August 16?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 16?
37°C 100.0%
33°C or below <1%
34°C <1%
35°C <1%
$45,492 Vol.
$45,492 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
33°C or below
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
Yes
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C or higher
No
37°C 100.0%
33°C or below <1%
34°C <1%
35°C <1%
$45,492 Vol.
$45,492 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
33°C or below
$5,521 Vol.
No
34°C
$3,243 Vol.
No
35°C
$5,151 Vol.
No
36°C
$6,073 Vol.
No
37°C
$8,994 Vol.
Yes
38°C
$8,124 Vol.
No
39°C
$3,753 Vol.
No
40°C
$2,764 Vol.
No
41°C
$975 Vol.
No
42°C
$625 Vol.
No
43°C or higher
$268 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent subtropical high pressure over the region, combined with weak steering flow in the Sichuan Basin and elevated humidity that restricts overnight cooling, has driven official forecast guidance toward a daily maximum near 37°C for Chongqing on August 16. This consensus aligns with historical August patterns of 35–40°C highs under similar synoptic setups and matches recent model runs from meteorological agencies. The 100% market-implied probability for 37°C reflects strong trader alignment with these data. A sudden increase in cloud cover, localized convective rainfall, or a late forecast revision from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration could realistically shift the observed peak lower.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$45,492End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent subtropical high pressure over the region, combined with weak steering flow in the Sichuan Basin and elevated humidity that restricts overnight cooling, has driven official forecast guidance toward a daily maximum near 37°C for Chongqing on August 16. This consensus aligns with historical August patterns of 35–40°C highs under similar synoptic setups and matches recent model runs from meteorological agencies. The 100% market-implied probability for 37°C reflects strong trader alignment with these data. A sudden increase in cloud cover, localized convective rainfall, or a late forecast revision from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration could realistically shift the observed peak lower.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$45,492End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Persistent subtropical high pressure over the region, combined with weak steering flow in the Sichuan Basin and elevated humidity that restricts overnight cooling, has driven official forecast guidance toward a daily maximum near 37°C for Chongqing on August 16. This consensus aligns with historical August patterns of 35–40°C highs under similar synoptic setups and matches recent model runs from meteorological agencies. The 100% market-implied probability for 37°C reflects strong trader alignment with these data. A sudden increase in cloud cover, localized convective rainfall, or a late forecast revision from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration could realistically shift the observed peak lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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