Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's overnight minimum will reach 26°C under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions typical of early August, with model consensus from JMA and global ensembles showing little deviation. Historical climatology for the period supports this baseline, as urban heat island effects and southerly flow suppress cooler air intrusions. The 97.5% market-implied probability reflects traders' assessment of these stable atmospheric patterns and limited forecast uncertainty. A realistic challenge could arise from an unpredicted frontal passage or rapid radiative cooling under clearer skies, potentially dropping readings below the threshold before official daily minimum verification.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月1日东京最低气温？
8月1日东京最低气温？
26°C 98%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
23°C <1%
$16,195 交易量
$16,195 交易量
2026-08-01
22°C或以下
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
98%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C或更高
<1%
26°C 98%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
23°C <1%
$16,195 交易量
$16,195 交易量
2026-08-01
22°C或以下
$348 交易量
<1%
23°C
$457 交易量
<1%
24°C
$506 交易量
1%
25°C
$745 交易量
<1%
26°C
$1,373 交易量
98%
27°C
$10,057 交易量
<1%
28°C
$1,181 交易量
<1%
29°C
$659 交易量
<1%
30°C
$372 交易量
<1%
31°C
$305 交易量
<1%
32°C或更高
$193 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's overnight minimum will reach 26°C under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions typical of early August, with model consensus from JMA and global ensembles showing little deviation. Historical climatology for the period supports this baseline, as urban heat island effects and southerly flow suppress cooler air intrusions. The 97.5% market-implied probability reflects traders' assessment of these stable atmospheric patterns and limited forecast uncertainty. A realistic challenge could arise from an unpredicted frontal passage or rapid radiative cooling under clearer skies, potentially dropping readings below the threshold before official daily minimum verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$16,195结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's overnight minimum will reach 26°C under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions typical of early August, with model consensus from JMA and global ensembles showing little deviation. Historical climatology for the period supports this baseline, as urban heat island effects and southerly flow suppress cooler air intrusions. The 97.5% market-implied probability reflects traders' assessment of these stable atmospheric patterns and limited forecast uncertainty. A realistic challenge could arise from an unpredicted frontal passage or rapid radiative cooling under clearer skies, potentially dropping readings below the threshold before official daily minimum verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$16,195结束日期
2026-08-01市场开放时间
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate Tokyo's overnight minimum will reach 26°C under stable subtropical high-pressure conditions typical of early August, with model consensus from JMA and global ensembles showing little deviation. Historical climatology for the period supports this baseline, as urban heat island effects and southerly flow suppress cooler air intrusions. The 97.5% market-implied probability reflects traders' assessment of these stable atmospheric patterns and limited forecast uncertainty. A realistic challenge could arise from an unpredicted frontal passage or rapid radiative cooling under clearer skies, potentially dropping readings below the threshold before official daily minimum verification.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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