**Market-implied odds strongly favor a daily minimum of 15–16°C in Paris on August 2, 2026, reflecting current model consensus for typical early-August overnight lows under high-pressure conditions.** Long-range guidance from sources such as Météo-France and AccuWeather shows persistent anticyclonic flow maintaining clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds, allowing efficient nocturnal radiational cooling after daytime highs that may exceed 30°C. This produces the classic summer diurnal range in the Paris basin, where minimum temperatures settle near the 1991–2020 climatological average of roughly 15–16°C rather than dropping further. Recent model runs have shown limited spread, with no strong signals for either a cooler maritime intrusion or additional cloud cover that would hold temperatures above 17°C. Historical analogs for early August under similar synoptic patterns confirm that 14°C or lower occurs infrequently without an active front, keeping that outcome at low implied probability. Traders are therefore positioning around the narrow 15–16°C band as the most probable outcome given the latest forecast guidance and the proximity of the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月2日巴黎最低气温？
8月2日巴黎最低气温？
16°C 50%
15°C 29%
17°C 16%
14°C或以下 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-02
14°C或以下
8%
15°C
29%
16°C
50%
17°C
16%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C或更高
<1%
16°C 50%
15°C 29%
17°C 16%
14°C或以下 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-02
14°C或以下
$284 交易量
8%
15°C
$300 交易量
29%
16°C
$586 交易量
50%
17°C
$186 交易量
16%
18°C
$133 交易量
2%
19°C
$179 交易量
1%
20°C
$119 交易量
<1%
21°C
$104 交易量
<1%
22°C
$103 交易量
<1%
23°C
$103 交易量
<1%
24°C或更高
$133 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds strongly favor a daily minimum of 15–16°C in Paris on August 2, 2026, reflecting current model consensus for typical early-August overnight lows under high-pressure conditions.**
Long-range guidance from sources such as Météo-France and AccuWeather shows persistent anticyclonic flow maintaining clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds, allowing efficient nocturnal radiational cooling after daytime highs that may exceed 30°C. This produces the classic summer diurnal range in the Paris basin, where minimum temperatures settle near the 1991–2020 climatological average of roughly 15–16°C rather than dropping further. Recent model runs have shown limited spread, with no strong signals for either a cooler maritime intrusion or additional cloud cover that would hold temperatures above 17°C. Historical analogs for early August under similar synoptic patterns confirm that 14°C or lower occurs infrequently without an active front, keeping that outcome at low implied probability. Traders are therefore positioning around the narrow 15–16°C band as the most probable outcome given the latest forecast guidance and the proximity of the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$2,229结束日期
2026-08-02市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds strongly favor a daily minimum of 15–16°C in Paris on August 2, 2026, reflecting current model consensus for typical early-August overnight lows under high-pressure conditions.**
Long-range guidance from sources such as Météo-France and AccuWeather shows persistent anticyclonic flow maintaining clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds, allowing efficient nocturnal radiational cooling after daytime highs that may exceed 30°C. This produces the classic summer diurnal range in the Paris basin, where minimum temperatures settle near the 1991–2020 climatological average of roughly 15–16°C rather than dropping further. Recent model runs have shown limited spread, with no strong signals for either a cooler maritime intrusion or additional cloud cover that would hold temperatures above 17°C. Historical analogs for early August under similar synoptic patterns confirm that 14°C or lower occurs infrequently without an active front, keeping that outcome at low implied probability. Traders are therefore positioning around the narrow 15–16°C band as the most probable outcome given the latest forecast guidance and the proximity of the resolution window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,229结束日期
2026-08-02市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Market-implied odds strongly favor a daily minimum of 15–16°C in Paris on August 2, 2026, reflecting current model consensus for typical early-August overnight lows under high-pressure conditions.** Long-range guidance from sources such as Météo-France and AccuWeather shows persistent anticyclonic flow maintaining clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds, allowing efficient nocturnal radiational cooling after daytime highs that may exceed 30°C. This produces the classic summer diurnal range in the Paris basin, where minimum temperatures settle near the 1991–2020 climatological average of roughly 15–16°C rather than dropping further. Recent model runs have shown limited spread, with no strong signals for either a cooler maritime intrusion or additional cloud cover that would hold temperatures above 17°C. Historical analogs for early August under similar synoptic patterns confirm that 14°C or lower occurs infrequently without an active front, keeping that outcome at low implied probability. Traders are therefore positioning around the narrow 15–16°C band as the most probable outcome given the latest forecast guidance and the proximity of the resolution window.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题