Recent ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a warm, humid air mass over northern France will limit overnight radiative cooling, driving the strong market consensus around a Paris minimum near 20–22°C on August 15. Daytime highs near 30–31°C under partly cloudy skies with possible afternoon thunderstorms further support elevated overnight temperatures, consistent with climatological patterns during late-summer warm spells. Météo-France and ECMWF guidance show limited model spread on this outcome, though a faster-moving cold front or clearer skies could enhance cooling and push readings lower. Updated model runs and official briefings in the next 48 hours represent the key data points likely to influence final resolution.