Forecast ensembles from major centers like the ECMWF and GFS currently cluster maximum temperatures in Warsaw on August 15 around 29–32 °C under mostly sunny skies and light southerly flow, producing the tightest market probabilities at 31 °C and 30 °C. Day-to-day variability stems from small differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and exact timing of any weak frontal passage that could shave a degree or two from peak heating. Historical August climatology shows mean highs near 24 °C with occasional excursions above 30 °C when high pressure builds, yet the narrow two-day lead time keeps resolution sensitive to the next model cycle and surface observations. Traders are weighting the consensus mode while discounting tails below 28 °C or above 33 °C absent stronger signals of anomalous warmth or persistent overcast.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于华沙8月15日的最高温度？
华沙8月15日的最高温度？
31°C 35%
30°C 29%
29°C 20%
32°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
3%
29°C
20%
30°C
29%
31°C
35%
32°C
13%
33°C
6%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 35%
30°C 29%
29°C 20%
32°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
25°C or below
$53 交易量
<1%
26°C
$13 交易量
1%
27°C
$7 交易量
4%
28°C
$112 交易量
3%
29°C
$155 交易量
20%
30°C
$67 交易量
29%
31°C
$84 交易量
35%
32°C
$121 交易量
13%
33°C
$38 交易量
6%
34°C
$47 交易量
1%
35°C or higher
$91 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast ensembles from major centers like the ECMWF and GFS currently cluster maximum temperatures in Warsaw on August 15 around 29–32 °C under mostly sunny skies and light southerly flow, producing the tightest market probabilities at 31 °C and 30 °C. Day-to-day variability stems from small differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and exact timing of any weak frontal passage that could shave a degree or two from peak heating. Historical August climatology shows mean highs near 24 °C with occasional excursions above 30 °C when high pressure builds, yet the narrow two-day lead time keeps resolution sensitive to the next model cycle and surface observations. Traders are weighting the consensus mode while discounting tails below 28 °C or above 33 °C absent stronger signals of anomalous warmth or persistent overcast.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$789结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast ensembles from major centers like the ECMWF and GFS currently cluster maximum temperatures in Warsaw on August 15 around 29–32 °C under mostly sunny skies and light southerly flow, producing the tightest market probabilities at 31 °C and 30 °C. Day-to-day variability stems from small differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and exact timing of any weak frontal passage that could shave a degree or two from peak heating. Historical August climatology shows mean highs near 24 °C with occasional excursions above 30 °C when high pressure builds, yet the narrow two-day lead time keeps resolution sensitive to the next model cycle and surface observations. Traders are weighting the consensus mode while discounting tails below 28 °C or above 33 °C absent stronger signals of anomalous warmth or persistent overcast.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$789结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETForecast ensembles from major centers like the ECMWF and GFS currently cluster maximum temperatures in Warsaw on August 15 around 29–32 °C under mostly sunny skies and light southerly flow, producing the tightest market probabilities at 31 °C and 30 °C. Day-to-day variability stems from small differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and exact timing of any weak frontal passage that could shave a degree or two from peak heating. Historical August climatology shows mean highs near 24 °C with occasional excursions above 30 °C when high pressure builds, yet the narrow two-day lead time keeps resolution sensitive to the next model cycle and surface observations. Traders are weighting the consensus mode while discounting tails below 28 °C or above 33 °C absent stronger signals of anomalous warmth or persistent overcast.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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