**Trader consensus strongly favors a 26°C minimum in Hong Kong on September 4, 2026, at 96.7% implied probability.** Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded overnight lows reaching approximately 25–26°C under typical late-summer conditions, with high humidity, light winds, and persistent cloud cover preventing significant radiative cooling. Model guidance and historical September climatology (average minimum near 25–26°C) aligned closely with these readings, leaving little room for deviation. Lower outcomes below 24°C would have required an atypical cold surge or clear-sky radiative event, both absent in real-time data. Minor station-to-station variations or final quality-controlled adjustments remain the only realistic paths to a different resolution, though current measurements support the market's dominant positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月4日香港最低气温？
9月4日香港最低气温？
26°C 96.7%
20°C或以下 <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$25,183 交易量
$25,183 交易量
2026-09-04
20°C或以下
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
97%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C或更高
<1%
26°C 96.7%
20°C或以下 <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$25,183 交易量
$25,183 交易量
2026-09-04
20°C或以下
$1,964 交易量
1%
21°C
$134 交易量
<1%
22°C
$558 交易量
<1%
23°C
$1,569 交易量
<1%
24°C
$1,615 交易量
<1%
25°C
$7,876 交易量
<1%
26°C
$4,621 交易量
97%
27°C
$2,962 交易量
<1%
28°C
$2,691 交易量
<1%
29°C
$1,034 交易量
<1%
30°C或更高
$160 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 26°C minimum in Hong Kong on September 4, 2026, at 96.7% implied probability.** Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded overnight lows reaching approximately 25–26°C under typical late-summer conditions, with high humidity, light winds, and persistent cloud cover preventing significant radiative cooling. Model guidance and historical September climatology (average minimum near 25–26°C) aligned closely with these readings, leaving little room for deviation. Lower outcomes below 24°C would have required an atypical cold surge or clear-sky radiative event, both absent in real-time data. Minor station-to-station variations or final quality-controlled adjustments remain the only realistic paths to a different resolution, though current measurements support the market's dominant positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$25,183结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus strongly favors a 26°C minimum in Hong Kong on September 4, 2026, at 96.7% implied probability.** Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded overnight lows reaching approximately 25–26°C under typical late-summer conditions, with high humidity, light winds, and persistent cloud cover preventing significant radiative cooling. Model guidance and historical September climatology (average minimum near 25–26°C) aligned closely with these readings, leaving little room for deviation. Lower outcomes below 24°C would have required an atypical cold surge or clear-sky radiative event, both absent in real-time data. Minor station-to-station variations or final quality-controlled adjustments remain the only realistic paths to a different resolution, though current measurements support the market's dominant positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$25,183结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET**Trader consensus strongly favors a 26°C minimum in Hong Kong on September 4, 2026, at 96.7% implied probability.** Official observations from the Hong Kong Observatory recorded overnight lows reaching approximately 25–26°C under typical late-summer conditions, with high humidity, light winds, and persistent cloud cover preventing significant radiative cooling. Model guidance and historical September climatology (average minimum near 25–26°C) aligned closely with these readings, leaving little room for deviation. Lower outcomes below 24°C would have required an atypical cold surge or clear-sky radiative event, both absent in real-time data. Minor station-to-station variations or final quality-controlled adjustments remain the only realistic paths to a different resolution, though current measurements support the market's dominant positioning.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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