The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–27°C for Manila’s August 26 low reflects substantial forecast uncertainty in the southwest monsoon regime, where variable cloud cover, rainfall intensity, and wind patterns control nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance from PAGASA and global models shows typical late-August minima near 24–26°C, but scattered showers or thicker monsoon clouds can suppress temperatures by 1–2°C while clearer breaks allow slight warming. With resolution hinging on the precise daily minimum recorded at the primary Manila station, traders are weighting near-term model consensus runs and any updates to tropical disturbance tracking that could alter steering flow or precipitation over the next 48 hours.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月26日馬尼拉的最低溫度？
8月26日馬尼拉的最低溫度？
21°C或以下 53%
31°C或更高 53%
25°C 50%
23°C 48%
最新
最新
2026-08-26
21°C或以下
53%
22°C
20%
23°C
48%
24°C
48%
25°C
50%
26°C
26%
27°C
26%
28°C
48%
29°C
48%
30°C
2%
31°C或更高
53%
21°C或以下 53%
31°C或更高 53%
25°C 50%
23°C 48%
最新
最新
2026-08-26
21°C或以下
$0 交易量
53%
22°C
$0 交易量
20%
23°C
$0 交易量
48%
24°C
$0 交易量
48%
25°C
$0 交易量
50%
26°C
$0 交易量
26%
27°C
$0 交易量
26%
28°C
$0 交易量
48%
29°C
$0 交易量
48%
30°C
$0 交易量
2%
31°C或更高
$0 交易量
53%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–27°C for Manila’s August 26 low reflects substantial forecast uncertainty in the southwest monsoon regime, where variable cloud cover, rainfall intensity, and wind patterns control nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance from PAGASA and global models shows typical late-August minima near 24–26°C, but scattered showers or thicker monsoon clouds can suppress temperatures by 1–2°C while clearer breaks allow slight warming. With resolution hinging on the precise daily minimum recorded at the primary Manila station, traders are weighting near-term model consensus runs and any updates to tropical disturbance tracking that could alter steering flow or precipitation over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-08-26市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–27°C for Manila’s August 26 low reflects substantial forecast uncertainty in the southwest monsoon regime, where variable cloud cover, rainfall intensity, and wind patterns control nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance from PAGASA and global models shows typical late-August minima near 24–26°C, but scattered showers or thicker monsoon clouds can suppress temperatures by 1–2°C while clearer breaks allow slight warming. With resolution hinging on the precise daily minimum recorded at the primary Manila station, traders are weighting near-term model consensus runs and any updates to tropical disturbance tracking that could alter steering flow or precipitation over the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-08-26市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 12:32 AM ETThe tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–27°C for Manila’s August 26 low reflects substantial forecast uncertainty in the southwest monsoon regime, where variable cloud cover, rainfall intensity, and wind patterns control nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance from PAGASA and global models shows typical late-August minima near 24–26°C, but scattered showers or thicker monsoon clouds can suppress temperatures by 1–2°C while clearer breaks allow slight warming. With resolution hinging on the precise daily minimum recorded at the primary Manila station, traders are weighting near-term model consensus runs and any updates to tropical disturbance tracking that could alter steering flow or precipitation over the next 48 hours.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions