Recent National Weather Service ensemble forecasts and model consensus have driven the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–81°F for New York City’s maximum temperature on August 24, reflecting modest uncertainty in peak heating under a typical late-summer high-pressure pattern. Subtle variations in predicted sea-breeze timing, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification differentiate the leading bins, with traders weighting the most recent short-range guidance that places the highest likelihood near 80–81°F. Historical late-August climatology in the region shows similar day-to-day spreads of 3–5°F due to these local factors, underscoring why no single outcome exceeds a 42% implied probability ahead of tomorrow’s observations at official stations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月24日紐約市的最高溫度？
8月24日紐約市的最高溫度？
80-81°F 42%
78-79°F 36%
82-83°F 14%
76-77°F 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
6%
78-79°F
36%
80-81°F
42%
82-83°F
14%
84-85°F
4%
86°F or higher
2%
80-81°F 42%
78-79°F 36%
82-83°F 14%
76-77°F 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
67°F or below
$69 交易量
<1%
68-69°F
$69 交易量
<1%
70-71°F
$69 交易量
<1%
72-73°F
$90 交易量
1%
74-75°F
$201 交易量
3%
76-77°F
$231 交易量
6%
78-79°F
$561 交易量
36%
80-81°F
$2,204 交易量
42%
82-83°F
$449 交易量
14%
84-85°F
$90 交易量
4%
86°F or higher
$152 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service ensemble forecasts and model consensus have driven the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–81°F for New York City’s maximum temperature on August 24, reflecting modest uncertainty in peak heating under a typical late-summer high-pressure pattern. Subtle variations in predicted sea-breeze timing, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification differentiate the leading bins, with traders weighting the most recent short-range guidance that places the highest likelihood near 80–81°F. Historical late-August climatology in the region shows similar day-to-day spreads of 3–5°F due to these local factors, underscoring why no single outcome exceeds a 42% implied probability ahead of tomorrow’s observations at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
交易量
$4,187結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service ensemble forecasts and model consensus have driven the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–81°F for New York City’s maximum temperature on August 24, reflecting modest uncertainty in peak heating under a typical late-summer high-pressure pattern. Subtle variations in predicted sea-breeze timing, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification differentiate the leading bins, with traders weighting the most recent short-range guidance that places the highest likelihood near 80–81°F. Historical late-August climatology in the region shows similar day-to-day spreads of 3–5°F due to these local factors, underscoring why no single outcome exceeds a 42% implied probability ahead of tomorrow’s observations at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$4,187結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETRecent National Weather Service ensemble forecasts and model consensus have driven the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–81°F for New York City’s maximum temperature on August 24, reflecting modest uncertainty in peak heating under a typical late-summer high-pressure pattern. Subtle variations in predicted sea-breeze timing, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification differentiate the leading bins, with traders weighting the most recent short-range guidance that places the highest likelihood near 80–81°F. Historical late-August climatology in the region shows similar day-to-day spreads of 3–5°F due to these local factors, underscoring why no single outcome exceeds a 42% implied probability ahead of tomorrow’s observations at official stations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions