Forecast models from Spain’s AEMET and international ensembles point to a cooling trend on August 24, with Madrid daytime highs most likely in the 26–28°C range after recent peaks near 33°C. Increased southwesterly flow, partial cloud cover, and a 20–30% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms are expected to limit solar heating and suppress the thermal maximum, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 27–29°C outcomes. These conditions follow typical late-summer variability in the Iberian high-pressure regime and contrast with earlier August warmth. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 24 hours remain the key data points that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月24日馬德裏氣溫最高？
8月24日馬德裏氣溫最高？
27°C 46%
28°C 30%
26°C 14%
29°C 9%
最新
$17,014 交易量
最新
$17,014 交易量
2026-08-24
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
14%
27°C
46%
28°C
30%
29°C
9%
30°C
4%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C或以上
<1%
27°C 46%
28°C 30%
26°C 14%
29°C 9%
最新
$17,014 交易量
最新
$17,014 交易量
2026-08-24
23°C or below
$374 交易量
<1%
24°C
$434 交易量
1%
25°C
$626 交易量
2%
26°C
$2,104 交易量
14%
27°C
$2,169 交易量
46%
28°C
$5,321 交易量
30%
29°C
$3,574 交易量
9%
30°C
$1,400 交易量
4%
31°C
$170 交易量
1%
32°C
$348 交易量
<1%
33°C或以上
$495 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from Spain’s AEMET and international ensembles point to a cooling trend on August 24, with Madrid daytime highs most likely in the 26–28°C range after recent peaks near 33°C. Increased southwesterly flow, partial cloud cover, and a 20–30% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms are expected to limit solar heating and suppress the thermal maximum, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 27–29°C outcomes. These conditions follow typical late-summer variability in the Iberian high-pressure regime and contrast with earlier August warmth. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 24 hours remain the key data points that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ET
交易量
$17,014結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from Spain’s AEMET and international ensembles point to a cooling trend on August 24, with Madrid daytime highs most likely in the 26–28°C range after recent peaks near 33°C. Increased southwesterly flow, partial cloud cover, and a 20–30% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms are expected to limit solar heating and suppress the thermal maximum, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 27–29°C outcomes. These conditions follow typical late-summer variability in the Iberian high-pressure regime and contrast with earlier August warmth. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 24 hours remain the key data points that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$17,014結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETForecast models from Spain’s AEMET and international ensembles point to a cooling trend on August 24, with Madrid daytime highs most likely in the 26–28°C range after recent peaks near 33°C. Increased southwesterly flow, partial cloud cover, and a 20–30% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms are expected to limit solar heating and suppress the thermal maximum, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 27–29°C outcomes. These conditions follow typical late-summer variability in the Iberian high-pressure regime and contrast with earlier August warmth. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 24 hours remain the key data points that could shift implied probabilities before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions