Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration and international sources indicate overnight lows in Jinan of 24–27°C on August 25 under partly cloudy conditions with limited radiative cooling, positioning the 22°C-or-higher outcome as the market leader at 48.5% implied probability. Late-August climatology shows average minimums near 22–24°C that rarely dip below 20°C absent strong frontal passages or clear-sky radiative events, while recent regional patterns of warm advection and scattered thundershowers have sustained elevated nighttime temperatures. Traders appear to weigh these persistent warm signals against minor model spread on cloud cover or localized showers that could trim a degree or two, keeping probabilities for 13–18°C bands clustered around 22.5% and underscoring the low likelihood of anomalous cooling before resolution.