Trader consensus heavily favors a minimum of 28°C for Hong Kong on August 24, reflecting Hong Kong Observatory climatology and short-range model guidance that place typical late-August overnight lows between 26–28°C under prevailing warm, humid southerly flow. Recent observations through mid-August show mean minimum temperatures near 27.8°C, with no active cold surge or typhoon-induced cooling expected to depress readings below this threshold. Market-implied odds align with the narrow historical distribution where values dip to 25°C or lower only during rare intrusions of modified polar air. A realistic scenario that could shift probabilities involves a sharper-than-forecast wind shift or prolonged heavy rain enhancing evaporative cooling, though ensemble guidance currently assigns low likelihood to such departures before the daily minimum is recorded.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月24日香港最低溫度?
28°C 96%
27°C 2%
26°C <1%
25°C <1%
$21,384 交易量
$21,384 交易量
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
96%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
28°C 96%
27°C 2%
26°C <1%
25°C <1%
$21,384 交易量
$21,384 交易量
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
96%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Aug 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a minimum of 28°C for Hong Kong on August 24, reflecting Hong Kong Observatory climatology and short-range model guidance that place typical late-August overnight lows between 26–28°C under prevailing warm, humid southerly flow. Recent observations through mid-August show mean minimum temperatures near 27.8°C, with no active cold surge or typhoon-induced cooling expected to depress readings below this threshold. Market-implied odds align with the narrow historical distribution where values dip to 25°C or lower only during rare intrusions of modified polar air. A realistic scenario that could shift probabilities involves a sharper-than-forecast wind shift or prolonged heavy rain enhancing evaporative cooling, though ensemble guidance currently assigns low likelihood to such departures before the daily minimum is recorded.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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