Forecast models from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international agencies indicate an overnight low near 25°C for Chengdu on August 23, 2026, as the dominant driver of the 82.5% market-implied probability on that outcome. Late-summer conditions in the Sichuan Basin feature high humidity, light winds, and limited cold-air advection under a subtropical high, keeping minimum temperatures close to seasonal averages of 23–26°C. Recent hourly observations show stabilization above 24°C with no significant frontal passage or precipitation cooling expected before dawn. Traders appear to weigh this consensus against typical model spread of 1–2°C, while lower-probability bins below 23°C reflect the low likelihood of rare radiative cooling under cloudy skies. Updated model runs and official station readings near resolution will determine final settlement.