Recent ensemble forecasts from global models indicate Buenos Aires minimum temperatures on August 24 will likely fall between 5–8°C under clear to partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds, and a stable high-pressure ridge that limits strong cold advection while permitting moderate radiational cooling overnight. This setup aligns with late-winter climatology for the region, where typical August lows range from 6–10°C, though slight variations in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing could shift the exact hourly minimum. The closely matched market-implied probabilities across cold and mild bins reflect this narrow uncertainty band and the inherent resolution sensitivity of official station observations, with traders weighting model consensus against historical analogs and potential forecast revisions expected from updated runs before midnight.