**Trader consensus has consolidated at 100% implied probability on a 104-105°F high for Austin on August 22 because official station observations aligned with National Weather Service forecasts under a persistent upper-level ridge.** Clear skies, strong southerly flow, and minimal afternoon moisture limited any cooling, allowing temperatures to peak in that narrow range amid an ongoing heat wave that had already produced multiple 102-104°F days earlier in August. Historical averages for the date hover near 96°F, highlighting the anomalous conditions driven by the ridge. Resolution depends on verified maximum readings at primary sites such as Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry; while model spreads were tight around 102-106°F, post-event data eliminated adjacent bins, leaving negligible probability for outcomes outside 104-105°F.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月22日のオースティンの最高気温は？
8月22日のオースティンの最高気温は？
104〜105°F 100.0%
95°F以下 <1%
96〜97°F <1%
98〜99°F <1%
$19,621 Vol.
$19,621 Vol.
2026/08/22
95°F以下
いいえ
96〜97°F
いいえ
98〜99°F
いいえ
100～101°F
いいえ
102〜103°F
いいえ
104〜105°F
はい
106〜107°F
いいえ
108〜109°F
いいえ
110〜111°F
いいえ
112～113°F
いいえ
114°F以上
いいえ
104〜105°F 100.0%
95°F以下 <1%
96〜97°F <1%
98〜99°F <1%
$19,621 Vol.
$19,621 Vol.
2026/08/22
95°F以下
$60 Vol.
いいえ
96〜97°F
$140 Vol.
いいえ
98〜99°F
$170 Vol.
いいえ
100～101°F
$1,967 Vol.
いいえ
102〜103°F
$4,172 Vol.
いいえ
104〜105°F
$6,691 Vol.
はい
106〜107°F
$3,979 Vol.
いいえ
108〜109°F
$1,756 Vol.
いいえ
110〜111°F
$250 Vol.
いいえ
112～113°F
$284 Vol.
いいえ
114°F以上
$153 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has consolidated at 100% implied probability on a 104-105°F high for Austin on August 22 because official station observations aligned with National Weather Service forecasts under a persistent upper-level ridge.** Clear skies, strong southerly flow, and minimal afternoon moisture limited any cooling, allowing temperatures to peak in that narrow range amid an ongoing heat wave that had already produced multiple 102-104°F days earlier in August. Historical averages for the date hover near 96°F, highlighting the anomalous conditions driven by the ridge. Resolution depends on verified maximum readings at primary sites such as Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry; while model spreads were tight around 102-106°F, post-event data eliminated adjacent bins, leaving negligible probability for outcomes outside 104-105°F.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
音量
$19,621終了日
2026/08/22マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 8:56 PM ET提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has consolidated at 100% implied probability on a 104-105°F high for Austin on August 22 because official station observations aligned with National Weather Service forecasts under a persistent upper-level ridge.** Clear skies, strong southerly flow, and minimal afternoon moisture limited any cooling, allowing temperatures to peak in that narrow range amid an ongoing heat wave that had already produced multiple 102-104°F days earlier in August. Historical averages for the date hover near 96°F, highlighting the anomalous conditions driven by the ridge. Resolution depends on verified maximum readings at primary sites such as Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry; while model spreads were tight around 102-106°F, post-event data eliminated adjacent bins, leaving negligible probability for outcomes outside 104-105°F.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$19,621終了日
2026/08/22マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 8:56 PM ET提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
**Trader consensus has consolidated at 100% implied probability on a 104-105°F high for Austin on August 22 because official station observations aligned with National Weather Service forecasts under a persistent upper-level ridge.** Clear skies, strong southerly flow, and minimal afternoon moisture limited any cooling, allowing temperatures to peak in that narrow range amid an ongoing heat wave that had already produced multiple 102-104°F days earlier in August. Historical averages for the date hover near 96°F, highlighting the anomalous conditions driven by the ridge. Resolution depends on verified maximum readings at primary sites such as Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry; while model spreads were tight around 102-106°F, post-event data eliminated adjacent bins, leaving negligible probability for outcomes outside 104-105°F.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
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