Tropical Storm Lala intensified into a Category 1 hurricane with peak sustained winds near 80 mph but tracked just south of Hawaiʻi Island, keeping its center offshore throughout the critical period around August 15–16, 2026. Official National Hurricane Center advisories and satellite observations documented the system brushing the Big Island with its eyewall and producing hurricane-force gusts plus extreme rainfall exceeding 20 inches in places, yet the center never crossed land while at hurricane strength. Steering patterns and rapid weakening after passage further reduced any landfall potential. With Lala now a weakening tropical storm moving northwest into the open Pacific, market-implied odds for no landfall as a hurricane reflect the verified track and intensity data from NOAA monitoring.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane?
<1% chance
$18,799 Vol.
$18,799 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
<1% chance
$18,799 Vol.
$18,799 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
This market will resolves "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lala makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and August 18, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall. Tropical Storm Lala intensified into a Category 1 hurricane with peak sustained winds near 80 mph but tracked just south of Hawaiʻi Island, keeping its center offshore throughout the critical period around August 15–16, 2026. Official National Hurricane Center advisories and satellite observations documented the system brushing the Big Island with its eyewall and producing hurricane-force gusts plus extreme rainfall exceeding 20 inches in places, yet the center never crossed land while at hurricane strength. Steering patterns and rapid weakening after passage further reduced any landfall potential. With Lala now a weakening tropical storm moving northwest into the open Pacific, market-implied odds for no landfall as a hurricane reflect the verified track and intensity data from NOAA monitoring.
This market will resolves "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lala makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and August 18, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$18,799End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolves "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lala makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and August 18, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall. Tropical Storm Lala intensified into a Category 1 hurricane with peak sustained winds near 80 mph but tracked just south of Hawaiʻi Island, keeping its center offshore throughout the critical period around August 15–16, 2026. Official National Hurricane Center advisories and satellite observations documented the system brushing the Big Island with its eyewall and producing hurricane-force gusts plus extreme rainfall exceeding 20 inches in places, yet the center never crossed land while at hurricane strength. Steering patterns and rapid weakening after passage further reduced any landfall potential. With Lala now a weakening tropical storm moving northwest into the open Pacific, market-implied odds for no landfall as a hurricane reflect the verified track and intensity data from NOAA monitoring.
This market will resolves "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lala makes landfall in the State of Hawaii at Category 1 strength or higher, as reported in official Central Pacific Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/), between market creation and August 18, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A landfall counts toward this determination only if it occurs within this window; the time of the physical landfall governs, not the time any confirming advisory is issued.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. Lala must hold hurricane strength (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) at the moment its surface center intersects the coastline for that landfall to qualify. If Tropical Storm Lala does not strengthen to become a hurricane, this market resolves to "No".
"Hawaii" means the entire State of Hawaii as recognized under U.S. law, including the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawaiʻi, Maui, Oʻahu, Kauaʻi, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, Niʻihau, and Kahoʻolawe) and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (including Midway Atoll and the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument).
The wind speed at the moment of landfall will be determined from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisory covers that exact moment, the most recent advisory issued prior to landfall governs.
This market may resolve based on the initial CPHC advisory reporting a qualifying landfall regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises Lala's intensity downward at the time of landfall.
Volume
$18,799End Date
Aug 19, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Tropical Storm Lala intensified into a Category 1 hurricane with peak sustained winds near 80 mph but tracked just south of Hawaiʻi Island, keeping its center offshore throughout the critical period around August 15–16, 2026. Official National Hurricane Center advisories and satellite observations documented the system brushing the Big Island with its eyewall and producing hurricane-force gusts plus extreme rainfall exceeding 20 inches in places, yet the center never crossed land while at hurricane strength. Steering patterns and rapid weakening after passage further reduced any landfall potential. With Lala now a weakening tropical storm moving northwest into the open Pacific, market-implied odds for no landfall as a hurricane reflect the verified track and intensity data from NOAA monitoring.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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