**Exceptional warmth through June and July has positioned the UK summer 2026 mean temperature well above the 2025 record of 16.12°C.** Provisional Met Office data through 10 August show a seasonal mean of 16.48°C (+1.88°C above the 1991–2020 baseline), driven by multiple heatwaves, June’s record daily maxima (37.7°C), and persistently elevated overnight minima. Only markedly below-average conditions for the final three weeks of August would prevent a new record; current forecasts and high-pressure dominance indicate continued above-average temperatures instead. Multiple stations have logged record June and July means, with 2026 already the first year exceeding 35°C in May, June, and July. These verified observations underpin the market-implied 88% probability that summer 2026 will rank as the warmest since records began in 1884.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
Will summer 2026 be the UK's hottest summer on record?
89% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
89% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.**Exceptional warmth through June and July has positioned the UK summer 2026 mean temperature well above the 2025 record of 16.12°C.** Provisional Met Office data through 10 August show a seasonal mean of 16.48°C (+1.88°C above the 1991–2020 baseline), driven by multiple heatwaves, June’s record daily maxima (37.7°C), and persistently elevated overnight minima. Only markedly below-average conditions for the final three weeks of August would prevent a new record; current forecasts and high-pressure dominance indicate continued above-average temperatures instead. Multiple stations have logged record June and July means, with 2026 already the first year exceeding 35°C in May, June, and July. These verified observations underpin the market-implied 88% probability that summer 2026 will rank as the warmest since records began in 1884.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Volume
$1,036End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.**Exceptional warmth through June and July has positioned the UK summer 2026 mean temperature well above the 2025 record of 16.12°C.** Provisional Met Office data through 10 August show a seasonal mean of 16.48°C (+1.88°C above the 1991–2020 baseline), driven by multiple heatwaves, June’s record daily maxima (37.7°C), and persistently elevated overnight minima. Only markedly below-average conditions for the final three weeks of August would prevent a new record; current forecasts and high-pressure dominance indicate continued above-average temperatures instead. Multiple stations have logged record June and July means, with 2026 already the first year exceeding 35°C in May, June, and July. These verified observations underpin the market-implied 88% probability that summer 2026 will rank as the warmest since records began in 1884.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Met Office's mean temperature for the United Kingdom for meteorological summer 2026 (June 1 to August 31, 2026) is the highest for any summer in the Met Office record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
The current UK summer mean temperature record is 16.12°C, set in summer 2025. A UK summer 2026 mean temperature greater than 16.12°C is necessary and sufficient for a "Yes" resolution; a value equal to or below 16.12°C resolves "No".
The primary resolution source will be the figure in the "sum" (summer) column of the row for year "2026" in the Met Office UK mean air temperature series (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/date/UK.txt). The market will resolve on the first value the Met Office publishes for summer 2026 in this series and will not be affected by any subsequent revision.
If the Met Office renders this series permanently unavailable, other official Met Office data for the UK summer 2026 mean temperature may be used. If no figure for summer 2026 has been published by the Met Office by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,036End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Exceptional warmth through June and July has positioned the UK summer 2026 mean temperature well above the 2025 record of 16.12°C.** Provisional Met Office data through 10 August show a seasonal mean of 16.48°C (+1.88°C above the 1991–2020 baseline), driven by multiple heatwaves, June’s record daily maxima (37.7°C), and persistently elevated overnight minima. Only markedly below-average conditions for the final three weeks of August would prevent a new record; current forecasts and high-pressure dominance indicate continued above-average temperatures instead. Multiple stations have logged record June and July means, with 2026 already the first year exceeding 35°C in May, June, and July. These verified observations underpin the market-implied 88% probability that summer 2026 will rank as the warmest since records began in 1884.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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