Trader sentiment shows high uncertainty in the text-to-video AI race heading into late November, with “Other” and several contenders clustered near 50% implied probability and no clear frontrunner. Competitive dynamics hinge on measurable improvements in motion coherence, prompt adherence, temporal consistency, and output resolution, where labs such as ByteDance, Meta, and OpenAI continue to iterate on large-scale video models. Differentiators include training data scale, inference efficiency, and integration with existing platforms, while lower-odds names like KlingAI, Luma AI, and Runway trail on recent public benchmarks. Upcoming developer conferences and potential model releases in the next 10 weeks remain key swing factors that could shift consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedByteDance 48%
Meta 37%
Lightricks 34%
Kandinsky 25%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
ByteDance
48%
Meta
37%
Lightricks
34%
Kandinsky
25%
Pruna
16%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
15%
19%
Black Forest Labs
12%
MiniMax
11%
Pika
11%
OpenAI
9%
Runway
9%
Tencent
7%
KlingAI
5%
Genmo AI
4%
Pixverse
3%
Luma AI
2%
SpaceXAI
2%
ByteDance 48%
Meta 37%
Lightricks 34%
Kandinsky 25%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
ByteDance
$71 Vol.
48%
Meta
$71 Vol.
37%
Lightricks
$71 Vol.
34%
Kandinsky
$71 Vol.
25%
Pruna
$57 Vol.
16%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$57 Vol.
15%
$94 Vol.
19%
Black Forest Labs
$57 Vol.
12%
MiniMax
$57 Vol.
11%
Pika
$50 Vol.
11%
OpenAI
$71 Vol.
9%
Runway
$57 Vol.
9%
Tencent
$55 Vol.
7%
KlingAI
$50 Vol.
5%
Genmo AI
$50 Vol.
4%
Pixverse
$57 Vol.
3%
Luma AI
$57 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$56 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment shows high uncertainty in the text-to-video AI race heading into late November, with “Other” and several contenders clustered near 50% implied probability and no clear frontrunner. Competitive dynamics hinge on measurable improvements in motion coherence, prompt adherence, temporal consistency, and output resolution, where labs such as ByteDance, Meta, and OpenAI continue to iterate on large-scale video models. Differentiators include training data scale, inference efficiency, and integration with existing platforms, while lower-odds names like KlingAI, Luma AI, and Runway trail on recent public benchmarks. Upcoming developer conferences and potential model releases in the next 10 weeks remain key swing factors that could shift consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:15 PM ET
Volume
$1,081End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment shows high uncertainty in the text-to-video AI race heading into late November, with “Other” and several contenders clustered near 50% implied probability and no clear frontrunner. Competitive dynamics hinge on measurable improvements in motion coherence, prompt adherence, temporal consistency, and output resolution, where labs such as ByteDance, Meta, and OpenAI continue to iterate on large-scale video models. Differentiators include training data scale, inference efficiency, and integration with existing platforms, while lower-odds names like KlingAI, Luma AI, and Runway trail on recent public benchmarks. Upcoming developer conferences and potential model releases in the next 10 weeks remain key swing factors that could shift consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,081End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment shows high uncertainty in the text-to-video AI race heading into late November, with “Other” and several contenders clustered near 50% implied probability and no clear frontrunner. Competitive dynamics hinge on measurable improvements in motion coherence, prompt adherence, temporal consistency, and output resolution, where labs such as ByteDance, Meta, and OpenAI continue to iterate on large-scale video models. Differentiators include training data scale, inference efficiency, and integration with existing platforms, while lower-odds names like KlingAI, Luma AI, and Runway trail on recent public benchmarks. Upcoming developer conferences and potential model releases in the next 10 weeks remain key swing factors that could shift consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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