Trader sentiment shows tight competition for the top AI model by end of November, with SpaceXAI at 26% implied probability edging out Meituan, Meta, and DeepSeek near 23-25%. This reflects ongoing advances in large language model capabilities, including improved reasoning benchmarks and multimodal features, amid rapid releases from multiple labs. No company has pulled ahead decisively due to similar training scales, data advantages, and engineering progress across Chinese and U.S. developers. Key swing factors include potential new model drops, efficiency gains, or third-party evaluations that could alter rankings before resolution. The spread underscores how quickly capability gaps can close in the current AI landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSpaceXAI 33%
Alibaba 22%
Xiaomi 22%
Anthropic 20%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
SpaceXAI
33%
Alibaba
22%
Xiaomi
22%
Anthropic
20%
Mistral
19%
Tencent
18%
Nvidia
17%
Meta
16%
MiniMax
15%
Thinky
15%
Meituan
15%
OpenAI
14%
StepFun
14%
Amazon
14%
Z.ai
14%
13%
ByteDance
13%
DeepSeek
13%
Microsoft
13%
Moonshot
7%
Baidu
11%
SpaceXAI 33%
Alibaba 22%
Xiaomi 22%
Anthropic 20%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
SpaceXAI
$37 Vol.
33%
Alibaba
$37 Vol.
22%
Xiaomi
$37 Vol.
22%
Anthropic
$37 Vol.
20%
Mistral
$37 Vol.
19%
Tencent
$37 Vol.
18%
Nvidia
$37 Vol.
17%
Meta
$37 Vol.
16%
MiniMax
$37 Vol.
15%
Thinky
$37 Vol.
15%
Meituan
$37 Vol.
15%
OpenAI
$37 Vol.
14%
StepFun
$37 Vol.
14%
Amazon
$37 Vol.
14%
Z.ai
$37 Vol.
14%
$37 Vol.
13%
ByteDance
$37 Vol.
13%
DeepSeek
$37 Vol.
13%
Microsoft
$65 Vol.
13%
Moonshot
$37 Vol.
7%
Baidu
$37 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment shows tight competition for the top AI model by end of November, with SpaceXAI at 26% implied probability edging out Meituan, Meta, and DeepSeek near 23-25%. This reflects ongoing advances in large language model capabilities, including improved reasoning benchmarks and multimodal features, amid rapid releases from multiple labs. No company has pulled ahead decisively due to similar training scales, data advantages, and engineering progress across Chinese and U.S. developers. Key swing factors include potential new model drops, efficiency gains, or third-party evaluations that could alter rankings before resolution. The spread underscores how quickly capability gaps can close in the current AI landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Volume
$799End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment shows tight competition for the top AI model by end of November, with SpaceXAI at 26% implied probability edging out Meituan, Meta, and DeepSeek near 23-25%. This reflects ongoing advances in large language model capabilities, including improved reasoning benchmarks and multimodal features, amid rapid releases from multiple labs. No company has pulled ahead decisively due to similar training scales, data advantages, and engineering progress across Chinese and U.S. developers. Key swing factors include potential new model drops, efficiency gains, or third-party evaluations that could alter rankings before resolution. The spread underscores how quickly capability gaps can close in the current AI landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$799End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment shows tight competition for the top AI model by end of November, with SpaceXAI at 26% implied probability edging out Meituan, Meta, and DeepSeek near 23-25%. This reflects ongoing advances in large language model capabilities, including improved reasoning benchmarks and multimodal features, amid rapid releases from multiple labs. No company has pulled ahead decisively due to similar training scales, data advantages, and engineering progress across Chinese and U.S. developers. Key swing factors include potential new model drops, efficiency gains, or third-party evaluations that could alter rankings before resolution. The spread underscores how quickly capability gaps can close in the current AI landscape.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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