**No comprehensive federal AI safety legislation has advanced to enactment as of mid-2026, despite multiple bills introduced in the 119th Congress on topics such as model audits, chatbot safeguards for minors, and accountability reporting.** Proposals including the Great American AI Act discussion draft and various chatbot measures have seen committee activity or House passage in some cases, yet none have cleared both chambers amid competing priorities and debates over federal preemption of state rules. The current administration has prioritized innovation-focused policies with limited new mandates, while states like Illinois, California, and New York have enacted targeted transparency and audit requirements for large models. Traders appear to view the combination of legislative fragmentation, administration emphasis on lighter oversight, and absence of an urgent catalyst as strong barriers to a broad federal bill clearing before the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10% chance
$101,407 Vol.
$101,407 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
10% chance
$101,407 Vol.
$101,407 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **No comprehensive federal AI safety legislation has advanced to enactment as of mid-2026, despite multiple bills introduced in the 119th Congress on topics such as model audits, chatbot safeguards for minors, and accountability reporting.** Proposals including the Great American AI Act discussion draft and various chatbot measures have seen committee activity or House passage in some cases, yet none have cleared both chambers amid competing priorities and debates over federal preemption of state rules. The current administration has prioritized innovation-focused policies with limited new mandates, while states like Illinois, California, and New York have enacted targeted transparency and audit requirements for large models. Traders appear to view the combination of legislative fragmentation, administration emphasis on lighter oversight, and absence of an urgent catalyst as strong barriers to a broad federal bill clearing before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$101,407End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **No comprehensive federal AI safety legislation has advanced to enactment as of mid-2026, despite multiple bills introduced in the 119th Congress on topics such as model audits, chatbot safeguards for minors, and accountability reporting.** Proposals including the Great American AI Act discussion draft and various chatbot measures have seen committee activity or House passage in some cases, yet none have cleared both chambers amid competing priorities and debates over federal preemption of state rules. The current administration has prioritized innovation-focused policies with limited new mandates, while states like Illinois, California, and New York have enacted targeted transparency and audit requirements for large models. Traders appear to view the combination of legislative fragmentation, administration emphasis on lighter oversight, and absence of an urgent catalyst as strong barriers to a broad federal bill clearing before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$101,407End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No comprehensive federal AI safety legislation has advanced to enactment as of mid-2026, despite multiple bills introduced in the 119th Congress on topics such as model audits, chatbot safeguards for minors, and accountability reporting.** Proposals including the Great American AI Act discussion draft and various chatbot measures have seen committee activity or House passage in some cases, yet none have cleared both chambers amid competing priorities and debates over federal preemption of state rules. The current administration has prioritized innovation-focused policies with limited new mandates, while states like Illinois, California, and New York have enacted targeted transparency and audit requirements for large models. Traders appear to view the combination of legislative fragmentation, administration emphasis on lighter oversight, and absence of an urgent catalyst as strong barriers to a broad federal bill clearing before the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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