Anthropic’s earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, and active preparations for an October Nasdaq debut underpin the 96.5% market-implied odds that it will IPO ahead of OpenAI. The Claude developer recently achieved a $965 billion private valuation and a $65 billion annualized revenue run rate, outpacing OpenAI’s trajectory after both firms filed with the SEC in June. OpenAI’s leadership has since signaled a likely shift toward 2027 to secure a $1 trillion valuation, citing market volatility and internal priorities easier to address while private. Realistic variables that could still alter the outcome include regulatory review delays, shifts in investor demand for AI large language model companies, or sudden changes in either firm’s financial disclosures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic
97% chance
$337,260 Vol.
$337,260 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
Anthropic
97% chance
$337,260 Vol.
$337,260 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, and active preparations for an October Nasdaq debut underpin the 96.5% market-implied odds that it will IPO ahead of OpenAI. The Claude developer recently achieved a $965 billion private valuation and a $65 billion annualized revenue run rate, outpacing OpenAI’s trajectory after both firms filed with the SEC in June. OpenAI’s leadership has since signaled a likely shift toward 2027 to secure a $1 trillion valuation, citing market volatility and internal priorities easier to address while private. Realistic variables that could still alter the outcome include regulatory review delays, shifts in investor demand for AI large language model companies, or sudden changes in either firm’s financial disclosures.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$337,260End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, and active preparations for an October Nasdaq debut underpin the 96.5% market-implied odds that it will IPO ahead of OpenAI. The Claude developer recently achieved a $965 billion private valuation and a $65 billion annualized revenue run rate, outpacing OpenAI’s trajectory after both firms filed with the SEC in June. OpenAI’s leadership has since signaled a likely shift toward 2027 to secure a $1 trillion valuation, citing market volatility and internal priorities easier to address while private. Realistic variables that could still alter the outcome include regulatory review delays, shifts in investor demand for AI large language model companies, or sudden changes in either firm’s financial disclosures.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$337,260End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s earlier confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026, and active preparations for an October Nasdaq debut underpin the 96.5% market-implied odds that it will IPO ahead of OpenAI. The Claude developer recently achieved a $965 billion private valuation and a $65 billion annualized revenue run rate, outpacing OpenAI’s trajectory after both firms filed with the SEC in June. OpenAI’s leadership has since signaled a likely shift toward 2027 to secure a $1 trillion valuation, citing market volatility and internal priorities easier to address while private. Realistic variables that could still alter the outcome include regulatory review delays, shifts in investor demand for AI large language model companies, or sudden changes in either firm’s financial disclosures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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