Trader sentiment reflects a tight race among leading text-to-video models, with ByteDance's Seedance series holding a slight edge due to its February 2026 launch of Seedance 2.0 and June 2026 Seedance 2.5 updates delivering superior multi-shot narratives, native 30-second clips, extensive reference inputs, and joint audio-video generation that topped Artificial Analysis leaderboards. Google Veo 3.1 and Kling 3.0 compete closely on cinematic polish, synchronized dialogue, and cost-effective iteration, while OpenAI's Sora 2 excels in physics-heavy scenes. Alibaba's HappyHorse-1.0 stands out for raw quality metrics. With rapid model iterations, benchmark shifts, and upcoming feature refinements expected before October, the fragmented odds capture uncertainty over which lab's next release or third-party evaluation will define the frontier.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAlibaba/Alibaba-ATH 42%
Tencent 39%
ByteDance 38%
KlingAI 38%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
42%
Tencent
39%
ByteDance
38%
KlingAI
38%
Pika
37%
Meta
35%
SpaceXAI
34%
31%
Pruna
26%
Luma AI
25%
Pixverse
24%
Runway
24%
Kandinsky
23%
Genmo AI
26%
MiniMax
27%
Lightricks
39%
OpenAI
34%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 42%
Tencent 39%
ByteDance 38%
KlingAI 38%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$37 Vol.
42%
Tencent
$37 Vol.
39%
ByteDance
$37 Vol.
38%
KlingAI
$37 Vol.
38%
Pika
$37 Vol.
37%
Meta
$37 Vol.
35%
SpaceXAI
$37 Vol.
34%
$37 Vol.
31%
Pruna
$37 Vol.
26%
Luma AI
$37 Vol.
25%
Pixverse
$37 Vol.
24%
Runway
$37 Vol.
24%
Kandinsky
$37 Vol.
23%
Genmo AI
$57 Vol.
26%
MiniMax
$57 Vol.
27%
Lightricks
$37 Vol.
39%
OpenAI
$57 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment reflects a tight race among leading text-to-video models, with ByteDance's Seedance series holding a slight edge due to its February 2026 launch of Seedance 2.0 and June 2026 Seedance 2.5 updates delivering superior multi-shot narratives, native 30-second clips, extensive reference inputs, and joint audio-video generation that topped Artificial Analysis leaderboards. Google Veo 3.1 and Kling 3.0 compete closely on cinematic polish, synchronized dialogue, and cost-effective iteration, while OpenAI's Sora 2 excels in physics-heavy scenes. Alibaba's HappyHorse-1.0 stands out for raw quality metrics. With rapid model iterations, benchmark shifts, and upcoming feature refinements expected before October, the fragmented odds capture uncertainty over which lab's next release or third-party evaluation will define the frontier.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Volume
$689End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment reflects a tight race among leading text-to-video models, with ByteDance's Seedance series holding a slight edge due to its February 2026 launch of Seedance 2.0 and June 2026 Seedance 2.5 updates delivering superior multi-shot narratives, native 30-second clips, extensive reference inputs, and joint audio-video generation that topped Artificial Analysis leaderboards. Google Veo 3.1 and Kling 3.0 compete closely on cinematic polish, synchronized dialogue, and cost-effective iteration, while OpenAI's Sora 2 excels in physics-heavy scenes. Alibaba's HappyHorse-1.0 stands out for raw quality metrics. With rapid model iterations, benchmark shifts, and upcoming feature refinements expected before October, the fragmented odds capture uncertainty over which lab's next release or third-party evaluation will define the frontier.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$689End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment reflects a tight race among leading text-to-video models, with ByteDance's Seedance series holding a slight edge due to its February 2026 launch of Seedance 2.0 and June 2026 Seedance 2.5 updates delivering superior multi-shot narratives, native 30-second clips, extensive reference inputs, and joint audio-video generation that topped Artificial Analysis leaderboards. Google Veo 3.1 and Kling 3.0 compete closely on cinematic polish, synchronized dialogue, and cost-effective iteration, while OpenAI's Sora 2 excels in physics-heavy scenes. Alibaba's HappyHorse-1.0 stands out for raw quality metrics. With rapid model iterations, benchmark shifts, and upcoming feature refinements expected before October, the fragmented odds capture uncertainty over which lab's next release or third-party evaluation will define the frontier.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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