Traders see a tightly contested race for the best text-to-video AI by end of September, with implied probabilities clustered near 40-50% across major players and no dominant leader. Recent July releases such as ByteDance Seedance 2.5, offering native 30-second 4K clips, local scene editing, and multi-modal references, have elevated its positioning alongside Kling 3.0's strengths in narrative consistency, audio synchronization, and motion physics. Google Veo 3.1 continues to lead certain cinematic and realism benchmarks, while Runway Gen-4.5 differentiates through advanced editing workflows and creative controls. OpenAI Sora 2 and others remain competitive but trail on some leaderboards. Key swing factors include any additional model updates, benchmark shifts, or capability demonstrations in the coming weeks that could tip aggregated trader sentiment before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGenmo AI 44%
Pruna 43%
Meta 43%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 41%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Genmo AI
44%
Pruna
43%
Meta
43%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
41%
SpaceXAI
41%
39%
Luma AI
36%
Kandinsky
36%
Runway
35%
Pixverse
34%
Tencent
33%
ByteDance
33%
Pika
32%
Lightricks
31%
OpenAI
29%
KlingAI
23%
MiniMax
21%
Genmo AI 44%
Pruna 43%
Meta 43%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH 41%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Genmo AI
$0 Vol.
44%
Pruna
$0 Vol.
43%
Meta
$0 Vol.
43%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$0 Vol.
41%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
41%
$0 Vol.
39%
Luma AI
$0 Vol.
36%
Kandinsky
$0 Vol.
36%
Runway
$0 Vol.
35%
Pixverse
$0 Vol.
34%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
33%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
33%
Pika
$74 Vol.
32%
Lightricks
$42 Vol.
31%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
29%
KlingAI
$73 Vol.
23%
MiniMax
$63 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for the best text-to-video AI by end of September, with implied probabilities clustered near 40-50% across major players and no dominant leader. Recent July releases such as ByteDance Seedance 2.5, offering native 30-second 4K clips, local scene editing, and multi-modal references, have elevated its positioning alongside Kling 3.0's strengths in narrative consistency, audio synchronization, and motion physics. Google Veo 3.1 continues to lead certain cinematic and realism benchmarks, while Runway Gen-4.5 differentiates through advanced editing workflows and creative controls. OpenAI Sora 2 and others remain competitive but trail on some leaderboards. Key swing factors include any additional model updates, benchmark shifts, or capability demonstrations in the coming weeks that could tip aggregated trader sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$251End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for the best text-to-video AI by end of September, with implied probabilities clustered near 40-50% across major players and no dominant leader. Recent July releases such as ByteDance Seedance 2.5, offering native 30-second 4K clips, local scene editing, and multi-modal references, have elevated its positioning alongside Kling 3.0's strengths in narrative consistency, audio synchronization, and motion physics. Google Veo 3.1 continues to lead certain cinematic and realism benchmarks, while Runway Gen-4.5 differentiates through advanced editing workflows and creative controls. OpenAI Sora 2 and others remain competitive but trail on some leaderboards. Key swing factors include any additional model updates, benchmark shifts, or capability demonstrations in the coming weeks that could tip aggregated trader sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$251End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tightly contested race for the best text-to-video AI by end of September, with implied probabilities clustered near 40-50% across major players and no dominant leader. Recent July releases such as ByteDance Seedance 2.5, offering native 30-second 4K clips, local scene editing, and multi-modal references, have elevated its positioning alongside Kling 3.0's strengths in narrative consistency, audio synchronization, and motion physics. Google Veo 3.1 continues to lead certain cinematic and realism benchmarks, while Runway Gen-4.5 differentiates through advanced editing workflows and creative controls. OpenAI Sora 2 and others remain competitive but trail on some leaderboards. Key swing factors include any additional model updates, benchmark shifts, or capability demonstrations in the coming weeks that could tip aggregated trader sentiment before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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