Traders see a tightly contested race for the top Text Arena Math AI model by end of October, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% across frontrunners and lower for specialists like Anthropic at 25%. Recent 2026 leaderboards on platforms such as matharena.ai and arena.ai show Anthropic Claude Opus variants and OpenAI GPT-5/o-series models trading wins on benchmarks including AIME and MATH-500, driven by advances in reasoning traces and synthetic data training. DeepSeek's open models edge some categories through efficient scaling, while Google Gemini and others compete on multi-step logic. Key swing factors include upcoming model updates, benchmark expansions, and any new capability demonstrations before resolution, underscoring how small edges in mathematical reasoning can shift aggregated trader sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 29%
Baidu 25%
Tencent 25%
DeepSeek 24%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
20%
Baidu
25%
Tencent
25%
DeepSeek
24%
Alibaba
24%
Moonshot
23%
Meta
23%
ByteDance
23%
SpaceXAI
22%
Microsoft
21%
OpenAI
18%
17%
Z.ai
14%
Nvidia
14%
Xiaomi
8%
StepFun
8%
Amazon
7%
Mistral
6%
Meituan
5%
MiniMax
5%
Anthropic 29%
Baidu 25%
Tencent 25%
DeepSeek 24%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$72 Vol.
20%
Baidu
$37 Vol.
25%
Tencent
$37 Vol.
25%
DeepSeek
$93 Vol.
24%
Alibaba
$42 Vol.
24%
Moonshot
$37 Vol.
23%
Meta
$37 Vol.
23%
ByteDance
$42 Vol.
23%
SpaceXAI
$37 Vol.
22%
Microsoft
$37 Vol.
21%
OpenAI
$37 Vol.
18%
$37 Vol.
17%
Z.ai
$37 Vol.
14%
Nvidia
$37 Vol.
14%
Xiaomi
$95 Vol.
8%
StepFun
$77 Vol.
8%
Amazon
$92 Vol.
7%
Mistral
$77 Vol.
6%
Meituan
$77 Vol.
5%
MiniMax
$75 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for the top Text Arena Math AI model by end of October, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% across frontrunners and lower for specialists like Anthropic at 25%. Recent 2026 leaderboards on platforms such as matharena.ai and arena.ai show Anthropic Claude Opus variants and OpenAI GPT-5/o-series models trading wins on benchmarks including AIME and MATH-500, driven by advances in reasoning traces and synthetic data training. DeepSeek's open models edge some categories through efficient scaling, while Google Gemini and others compete on multi-step logic. Key swing factors include upcoming model updates, benchmark expansions, and any new capability demonstrations before resolution, underscoring how small edges in mathematical reasoning can shift aggregated trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volume
$1,115End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for the top Text Arena Math AI model by end of October, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% across frontrunners and lower for specialists like Anthropic at 25%. Recent 2026 leaderboards on platforms such as matharena.ai and arena.ai show Anthropic Claude Opus variants and OpenAI GPT-5/o-series models trading wins on benchmarks including AIME and MATH-500, driven by advances in reasoning traces and synthetic data training. DeepSeek's open models edge some categories through efficient scaling, while Google Gemini and others compete on multi-step logic. Key swing factors include upcoming model updates, benchmark expansions, and any new capability demonstrations before resolution, underscoring how small edges in mathematical reasoning can shift aggregated trader sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,115End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tightly contested race for the top Text Arena Math AI model by end of October, with market-implied odds clustered near 50% across frontrunners and lower for specialists like Anthropic at 25%. Recent 2026 leaderboards on platforms such as matharena.ai and arena.ai show Anthropic Claude Opus variants and OpenAI GPT-5/o-series models trading wins on benchmarks including AIME and MATH-500, driven by advances in reasoning traces and synthetic data training. DeepSeek's open models edge some categories through efficient scaling, while Google Gemini and others compete on multi-step logic. Key swing factors include upcoming model updates, benchmark expansions, and any new capability demonstrations before resolution, underscoring how small edges in mathematical reasoning can shift aggregated trader sentiment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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