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icon for Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?

Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?

icon for Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?

Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?

Google 32%

Meta 30%

Thinky 25%

Baidu 25%

Polymarket
NEW

Google 32%

Meta 30%

Thinky 25%

Baidu 25%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Google

Google

$33 Vol.

21%

icon for Meta

Meta

$20 Vol.

17%

icon for Thinky

Thinky

$20 Vol.

14%

icon for Baidu

Baidu

$54 Vol.

14%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$20 Vol.

14%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$0 Vol.

22%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$33 Vol.

21%

icon for MiniMax

MiniMax

$20 Vol.

13%

icon for Alibaba

Alibaba

$0 Vol.

20%

icon for Meituan

Meituan

$0 Vol.

20%

icon for Microsoft

Microsoft

$0 Vol.

19%

icon for Amazon

Amazon

$0 Vol.

17%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$0 Vol.

17%

icon for SpaceXAI

SpaceXAI

$20 Vol.

15%

icon for StepFun

StepFun

$20 Vol.

14%

icon for ByteDance

ByteDance

$58 Vol.

11%

icon for Moonshot

Moonshot

$20 Vol.

20%

icon for Nvidia

Nvidia

$54 Vol.

14%

icon for Xiaomi

Xiaomi

$20 Vol.

15%

icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$20 Vol.

14%

icon for Tencent

Tencent

$58 Vol.

15%

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”In the race for the highest LiveBench overall score by end of October, trader sentiment reflects intense competition among frontier AI labs, with no single company holding a decisive edge. Multiple developers are iterating rapidly on large language models through advances in reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks that define the benchmark. Differentiating factors include training data quality, architectural efficiency, and post-training alignment techniques, while historical release cycles show how quickly rankings can shift. Key upcoming catalysts such as new model drops or capability demonstrations over the next ten weeks could break the deadlock, highlighting the wisdom of crowds in pricing this uncertain outcome.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$468
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”In the race for the highest LiveBench overall score by end of October, trader sentiment reflects intense competition among frontier AI labs, with no single company holding a decisive edge. Multiple developers are iterating rapidly on large language models through advances in reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks that define the benchmark. Differentiating factors include training data quality, architectural efficiency, and post-training alignment techniques, while historical release cycles show how quickly rankings can shift. Key upcoming catalysts such as new model drops or capability demonstrations over the next ten weeks could break the deadlock, highlighting the wisdom of crowds in pricing this uncertain outcome.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$468
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "OpenAI" at 22%, followed by "Google" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 22¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 12, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?" is "OpenAI" at 22%, meaning the market assigns a 22% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Google" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.