Traders see the next Claude Opus release clustered in late September due to unverified routing rumors pointing to a possible Opus 5.2 launch around September 17–18 or month-end, following the July 24 release of Opus 5 and the September 1 arrival of Fable 5.1. Anthropic has issued no official announcement, model card, or API update, leaving probabilities tightly bunched as participants weigh the lab’s recent cadence of iterative Opus upgrades against the absence of confirmed benchmarks or developer access. Key swing factors include any sudden safety-classifier or platform changes that could signal an imminent drop, with the 14.5% chance of no release by September 30 capturing skepticism over rapid turnaround.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo release by September 30 17%
September 24 16%
September 25 16%
September 30 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
September 17
6%
September 18
6%
September 19
1%
September 20
5%
September 21
8%
September 22
10%
September 23
13%
September 24
16%
September 25
16%
September 26
5%
September 27
5%
September 28
8%
September 29
11%
September 30
14%
No release by September 30
13%
No release by September 30 17%
September 24 16%
September 25 16%
September 30 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 17, 2026
September 17
$439 Vol.
6%
September 18
$0 Vol.
6%
September 19
$447 Vol.
1%
September 20
$468 Vol.
5%
September 21
$0 Vol.
8%
September 22
$0 Vol.
10%
September 23
$0 Vol.
13%
September 24
$40 Vol.
16%
September 25
$0 Vol.
16%
September 26
$447 Vol.
5%
September 27
$447 Vol.
5%
September 28
$0 Vol.
8%
September 29
$23 Vol.
11%
September 30
$100 Vol.
14%
No release by September 30
$80 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see the next Claude Opus release clustered in late September due to unverified routing rumors pointing to a possible Opus 5.2 launch around September 17–18 or month-end, following the July 24 release of Opus 5 and the September 1 arrival of Fable 5.1. Anthropic has issued no official announcement, model card, or API update, leaving probabilities tightly bunched as participants weigh the lab’s recent cadence of iterative Opus upgrades against the absence of confirmed benchmarks or developer access. Key swing factors include any sudden safety-classifier or platform changes that could signal an imminent drop, with the 14.5% chance of no release by September 30 capturing skepticism over rapid turnaround.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$2,639End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Traders see the next Claude Opus release clustered in late September due to unverified routing rumors pointing to a possible Opus 5.2 launch around September 17–18 or month-end, following the July 24 release of Opus 5 and the September 1 arrival of Fable 5.1. Anthropic has issued no official announcement, model card, or API update, leaving probabilities tightly bunched as participants weigh the lab’s recent cadence of iterative Opus upgrades against the absence of confirmed benchmarks or developer access. Key swing factors include any sudden safety-classifier or platform changes that could signal an imminent drop, with the 14.5% chance of no release by September 30 capturing skepticism over rapid turnaround.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants released after market creation. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. Claude Opus 5, released on July 24, 2026, and any snapshot, rollout, or re-release of it will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,639End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the next Claude Opus release clustered in late September due to unverified routing rumors pointing to a possible Opus 5.2 launch around September 17–18 or month-end, following the July 24 release of Opus 5 and the September 1 arrival of Fable 5.1. Anthropic has issued no official announcement, model card, or API update, leaving probabilities tightly bunched as participants weigh the lab’s recent cadence of iterative Opus upgrades against the absence of confirmed benchmarks or developer access. Key swing factors include any sudden safety-classifier or platform changes that could signal an imminent drop, with the 14.5% chance of no release by September 30 capturing skepticism over rapid turnaround.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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