The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 50% for Other and numerous labs reflects a fragmented competitive field in mathematical reasoning benchmarks, where no single contender has established a durable edge. Recent releases from DeepSeek and Moonshot have delivered strong gains on math-specific evaluations, narrowing the gap with established players like Google and OpenAI, while xAI and Meta continue iterative scaling focused on chain-of-thought improvements. Traders appear to weigh historical benchmark volatility, typical model slippage timelines, and the possibility of surprise updates before November resolution. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences and any new large language model versions that demonstrate superior performance on rigorous math tasks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 27%
ByteDance 24%
Thinky 24%
OpenAI 23%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
27%
ByteDance
24%
Thinky
24%
OpenAI
23%
Anthropic
21%
Tencent
21%
SpaceXAI
20%
Meituan
17%
Mistral
17%
Z.ai
16%
Nvidia
16%
StepFun
16%
MiniMax
14%
DeepSeek
14%
Moonshot
14%
Amazon
12%
Meta
12%
Microsoft
11%
Alibaba
9%
Baidu
7%
Xiaomi
7%
Google 27%
ByteDance 24%
Thinky 24%
OpenAI 23%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
$33 Vol.
27%
ByteDance
$33 Vol.
24%
Thinky
$33 Vol.
24%
OpenAI
$33 Vol.
23%
Anthropic
$33 Vol.
21%
Tencent
$33 Vol.
21%
SpaceXAI
$33 Vol.
20%
Meituan
$33 Vol.
17%
Mistral
$33 Vol.
17%
Z.ai
$33 Vol.
16%
Nvidia
$33 Vol.
16%
StepFun
$33 Vol.
16%
MiniMax
$33 Vol.
14%
DeepSeek
$33 Vol.
14%
Moonshot
$77 Vol.
14%
Amazon
$78 Vol.
12%
Meta
$33 Vol.
12%
Microsoft
$77 Vol.
11%
Alibaba
$33 Vol.
9%
Baidu
$33 Vol.
7%
Xiaomi
$33 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 50% for Other and numerous labs reflects a fragmented competitive field in mathematical reasoning benchmarks, where no single contender has established a durable edge. Recent releases from DeepSeek and Moonshot have delivered strong gains on math-specific evaluations, narrowing the gap with established players like Google and OpenAI, while xAI and Meta continue iterative scaling focused on chain-of-thought improvements. Traders appear to weigh historical benchmark volatility, typical model slippage timelines, and the possibility of surprise updates before November resolution. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences and any new large language model versions that demonstrate superior performance on rigorous math tasks.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$820End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 50% for Other and numerous labs reflects a fragmented competitive field in mathematical reasoning benchmarks, where no single contender has established a durable edge. Recent releases from DeepSeek and Moonshot have delivered strong gains on math-specific evaluations, narrowing the gap with established players like Google and OpenAI, while xAI and Meta continue iterative scaling focused on chain-of-thought improvements. Traders appear to weigh historical benchmark volatility, typical model slippage timelines, and the possibility of surprise updates before November resolution. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences and any new large language model versions that demonstrate superior performance on rigorous math tasks.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$820End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 50% for Other and numerous labs reflects a fragmented competitive field in mathematical reasoning benchmarks, where no single contender has established a durable edge. Recent releases from DeepSeek and Moonshot have delivered strong gains on math-specific evaluations, narrowing the gap with established players like Google and OpenAI, while xAI and Meta continue iterative scaling focused on chain-of-thought improvements. Traders appear to weigh historical benchmark volatility, typical model slippage timelines, and the possibility of surprise updates before November resolution. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences and any new large language model versions that demonstrate superior performance on rigorous math tasks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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