The closely matched market odds around 50% for OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, DeepSeek, and a wide field of others reflect the intense competition in specialized math reasoning benchmarks within text-based AI arenas. Recent model releases have narrowed gaps, with DeepSeek variants matching or exceeding frontier performance on AIME and MATH-500 through efficient training, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 tuning and Anthropic's consistent leaderboard positioning create frequent shifts. Traders see multiple labs capable of rapid iteration before September resolution, driven by ongoing advances in large language model capabilities, benchmark-specific optimizations, and competitive pressure from both Western and Chinese AI developers. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new releases or capability demonstrations that could reorder the second-place ranking in this dynamic segment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedXiaomi 50%
Tencent 50%
StepFun 50%
Microsoft 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Xiaomi
50%
Tencent
50%
StepFun
50%
Microsoft
50%
DeepSeek
50%
Amazon
50%
ByteDance
50%
SpaceXAI
50%
Alibaba
50%
Z.ai
50%
Meituan
50%
Nvidia
50%
Moonshot
49%
Meta
49%
Baidu
47%
MiniMax
47%
Anthropic
46%
46%
Mistral
44%
OpenAI
44%
Xiaomi 50%
Tencent 50%
StepFun 50%
Microsoft 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
50%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
50%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
50%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
50%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
50%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
50%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
50%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
50%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
50%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
50%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
50%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
50%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
49%
Meta
$0 Vol.
49%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
47%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
47%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
46%
$0 Vol.
46%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
44%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched market odds around 50% for OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, DeepSeek, and a wide field of others reflect the intense competition in specialized math reasoning benchmarks within text-based AI arenas. Recent model releases have narrowed gaps, with DeepSeek variants matching or exceeding frontier performance on AIME and MATH-500 through efficient training, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 tuning and Anthropic's consistent leaderboard positioning create frequent shifts. Traders see multiple labs capable of rapid iteration before September resolution, driven by ongoing advances in large language model capabilities, benchmark-specific optimizations, and competitive pressure from both Western and Chinese AI developers. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new releases or capability demonstrations that could reorder the second-place ranking in this dynamic segment.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched market odds around 50% for OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, DeepSeek, and a wide field of others reflect the intense competition in specialized math reasoning benchmarks within text-based AI arenas. Recent model releases have narrowed gaps, with DeepSeek variants matching or exceeding frontier performance on AIME and MATH-500 through efficient training, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 tuning and Anthropic's consistent leaderboard positioning create frequent shifts. Traders see multiple labs capable of rapid iteration before September resolution, driven by ongoing advances in large language model capabilities, benchmark-specific optimizations, and competitive pressure from both Western and Chinese AI developers. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new releases or capability demonstrations that could reorder the second-place ranking in this dynamic segment.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market odds around 50% for OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, DeepSeek, and a wide field of others reflect the intense competition in specialized math reasoning benchmarks within text-based AI arenas. Recent model releases have narrowed gaps, with DeepSeek variants matching or exceeding frontier performance on AIME and MATH-500 through efficient training, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 tuning and Anthropic's consistent leaderboard positioning create frequent shifts. Traders see multiple labs capable of rapid iteration before September resolution, driven by ongoing advances in large language model capabilities, benchmark-specific optimizations, and competitive pressure from both Western and Chinese AI developers. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new releases or capability demonstrations that could reorder the second-place ranking in this dynamic segment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions