Meta leads trader consensus at 51.5% implied probability for the #2 AI lab by end-September 2026, with Google, several unnamed contenders, and others clustered tightly around 49.5–50%, reflecting a highly contested field behind OpenAI. Recent model releases and capability benchmarks have kept Meta’s Llama series competitive through open-source accessibility and rapid iteration, while Google DeepMind advances Gemini integrations across platforms. Anthropic and OpenAI sit lower at 43% amid focus on safety-aligned large language models and internal scaling priorities. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, new benchmark results on reasoning or multimodal tasks, and any strategic partnerships that could shift adoption metrics before the September cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMeta 41%
Google 38%
Anthropic 38%
Moonshot 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
41%
38%
Anthropic
38%
Moonshot
38%
OpenAI
38%
Alibaba
38%
SpaceXAI
38%
Z.ai
38%
Xiaomi
38%
Nvidia
38%
Baidu
38%
MiniMax
24%
Microsoft
24%
DeepSeek
23%
ByteDance
23%
Thinky
23%
Meituan
23%
Mistral
23%
Amazon
23%
Tencent
23%
StepFun
23%
Meta 41%
Google 38%
Anthropic 38%
Moonshot 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
$0 Vol.
41%
$0 Vol.
38%
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
38%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
38%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
38%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
38%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
38%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
38%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
38%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
38%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
38%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
24%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
24%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
23%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
23%
Thinky
$0 Vol.
23%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
23%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
23%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
23%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
23%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta leads trader consensus at 51.5% implied probability for the #2 AI lab by end-September 2026, with Google, several unnamed contenders, and others clustered tightly around 49.5–50%, reflecting a highly contested field behind OpenAI. Recent model releases and capability benchmarks have kept Meta’s Llama series competitive through open-source accessibility and rapid iteration, while Google DeepMind advances Gemini integrations across platforms. Anthropic and OpenAI sit lower at 43% amid focus on safety-aligned large language models and internal scaling priorities. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, new benchmark results on reasoning or multimodal tasks, and any strategic partnerships that could shift adoption metrics before the September cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta leads trader consensus at 51.5% implied probability for the #2 AI lab by end-September 2026, with Google, several unnamed contenders, and others clustered tightly around 49.5–50%, reflecting a highly contested field behind OpenAI. Recent model releases and capability benchmarks have kept Meta’s Llama series competitive through open-source accessibility and rapid iteration, while Google DeepMind advances Gemini integrations across platforms. Anthropic and OpenAI sit lower at 43% amid focus on safety-aligned large language models and internal scaling priorities. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, new benchmark results on reasoning or multimodal tasks, and any strategic partnerships that could shift adoption metrics before the September cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Meta leads trader consensus at 51.5% implied probability for the #2 AI lab by end-September 2026, with Google, several unnamed contenders, and others clustered tightly around 49.5–50%, reflecting a highly contested field behind OpenAI. Recent model releases and capability benchmarks have kept Meta’s Llama series competitive through open-source accessibility and rapid iteration, while Google DeepMind advances Gemini integrations across platforms. Anthropic and OpenAI sit lower at 43% amid focus on safety-aligned large language models and internal scaling priorities. Key swing factors include upcoming developer conferences, new benchmark results on reasoning or multimodal tasks, and any strategic partnerships that could shift adoption metrics before the September cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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