Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases, which currently top composite benchmarks like BenchLM at 84.7 and lead in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, drive the 59% market-implied odds favoring the company for the best large language model by end of November. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning and productivity features, such as new Docs and Slides integrations, against OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (second on most leaderboards) and Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash updates. Chinese providers like Alibaba's Qwen and Moonshot trail significantly in verified evaluations, while the cluster of 50% outcomes reflects uncertainty over rapid iteration cycles, potential new model drops, and how subjective "best" criteria—such as real-world agent performance or cost-efficiency—could shift sentiment before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 59%
Alibaba 38%
Z.ai 27%
Google 25%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
59%
Alibaba
38%
Z.ai
27%
21%
DeepSeek
23%
MiniMax
23%
OpenAI
20%
Meituan
20%
Mistral
19%
Tencent
19%
Meta
11%
Xiaomi
11%
SpaceXAI
10%
Microsoft
9%
Baidu
9%
Nvidia
8%
StepFun
9%
Thinky
4%
ByteDance
10%
Moonshot
4%
Amazon
12%
Anthropic 59%
Alibaba 38%
Z.ai 27%
Google 25%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
$81 Vol.
59%
Alibaba
$60 Vol.
38%
Z.ai
$50 Vol.
27%
$86 Vol.
21%
DeepSeek
$50 Vol.
23%
MiniMax
$50 Vol.
23%
OpenAI
$50 Vol.
20%
Meituan
$50 Vol.
20%
Mistral
$64 Vol.
19%
Tencent
$50 Vol.
19%
Meta
$66 Vol.
11%
Xiaomi
$66 Vol.
11%
SpaceXAI
$64 Vol.
10%
Microsoft
$64 Vol.
9%
Baidu
$64 Vol.
9%
Nvidia
$66 Vol.
8%
StepFun
$72 Vol.
9%
Thinky
$103 Vol.
4%
ByteDance
$77 Vol.
10%
Moonshot
$66 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$65 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases, which currently top composite benchmarks like BenchLM at 84.7 and lead in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, drive the 59% market-implied odds favoring the company for the best large language model by end of November. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning and productivity features, such as new Docs and Slides integrations, against OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (second on most leaderboards) and Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash updates. Chinese providers like Alibaba's Qwen and Moonshot trail significantly in verified evaluations, while the cluster of 50% outcomes reflects uncertainty over rapid iteration cycles, potential new model drops, and how subjective "best" criteria—such as real-world agent performance or cost-efficiency—could shift sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,360End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases, which currently top composite benchmarks like BenchLM at 84.7 and lead in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, drive the 59% market-implied odds favoring the company for the best large language model by end of November. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning and productivity features, such as new Docs and Slides integrations, against OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (second on most leaderboards) and Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash updates. Chinese providers like Alibaba's Qwen and Moonshot trail significantly in verified evaluations, while the cluster of 50% outcomes reflects uncertainty over rapid iteration cycles, potential new model drops, and how subjective "best" criteria—such as real-world agent performance or cost-efficiency—could shift sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,360End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases, which currently top composite benchmarks like BenchLM at 84.7 and lead in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, drive the 59% market-implied odds favoring the company for the best large language model by end of November. Traders appear to weigh Anthropic's consistent frontier positioning and productivity features, such as new Docs and Slides integrations, against OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra (second on most leaderboards) and Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash updates. Chinese providers like Alibaba's Qwen and Moonshot trail significantly in verified evaluations, while the cluster of 50% outcomes reflects uncertainty over rapid iteration cycles, potential new model drops, and how subjective "best" criteria—such as real-world agent performance or cost-efficiency—could shift sentiment before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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