Traders view the race for the leading Text Arena Math AI model by end of November as highly competitive and uncertain, with market-implied odds reflecting a fragmented field where no single company has pulled ahead decisively. Intense rivalry among labs developing large language models fuels this balance, as incremental gains in mathematical reasoning benchmarks and demonstrated capabilities keep multiple players in contention. Recent model updates from established firms have tightened performance gaps, while regulatory scrutiny and development timelines add layers of unpredictability. Upcoming evaluations, new releases, and third-party benchmark results in the coming weeks represent the main catalysts that could consolidate or further disperse trader sentiment before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedZ.ai 44%
SpaceXAI 43%
Microsoft 41%
OpenAI 37%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Z.ai
44%
SpaceXAI
43%
Microsoft
41%
OpenAI
37%
Tencent
30%
Moonshot
25%
Meta
25%
DeepSeek
24%
23%
StepFun
23%
Thinky
23%
Xiaomi
22%
Meituan
16%
Alibaba
13%
Baidu
13%
Nvidia
12%
MiniMax
8%
Mistral
6%
Anthropic
3%
Amazon
3%
ByteDance
36%
Z.ai 44%
SpaceXAI 43%
Microsoft 41%
OpenAI 37%
NEW
NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Z.ai
$34 Vol.
44%
SpaceXAI
$34 Vol.
43%
Microsoft
$34 Vol.
41%
OpenAI
$34 Vol.
37%
Tencent
$21 Vol.
30%
Moonshot
$34 Vol.
25%
Meta
$34 Vol.
25%
DeepSeek
$34 Vol.
24%
$34 Vol.
23%
StepFun
$34 Vol.
23%
Thinky
$34 Vol.
23%
Xiaomi
$34 Vol.
22%
Meituan
$49 Vol.
16%
Alibaba
$34 Vol.
13%
Baidu
$34 Vol.
13%
Nvidia
$64 Vol.
12%
MiniMax
$34 Vol.
8%
Mistral
$66 Vol.
6%
Anthropic
$21 Vol.
3%
Amazon
$50 Vol.
3%
ByteDance
$35 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the race for the leading Text Arena Math AI model by end of November as highly competitive and uncertain, with market-implied odds reflecting a fragmented field where no single company has pulled ahead decisively. Intense rivalry among labs developing large language models fuels this balance, as incremental gains in mathematical reasoning benchmarks and demonstrated capabilities keep multiple players in contention. Recent model updates from established firms have tightened performance gaps, while regulatory scrutiny and development timelines add layers of unpredictability. Upcoming evaluations, new releases, and third-party benchmark results in the coming weeks represent the main catalysts that could consolidate or further disperse trader sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$775End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the race for the leading Text Arena Math AI model by end of November as highly competitive and uncertain, with market-implied odds reflecting a fragmented field where no single company has pulled ahead decisively. Intense rivalry among labs developing large language models fuels this balance, as incremental gains in mathematical reasoning benchmarks and demonstrated capabilities keep multiple players in contention. Recent model updates from established firms have tightened performance gaps, while regulatory scrutiny and development timelines add layers of unpredictability. Upcoming evaluations, new releases, and third-party benchmark results in the coming weeks represent the main catalysts that could consolidate or further disperse trader sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$775End Date
Dec 1, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders view the race for the leading Text Arena Math AI model by end of November as highly competitive and uncertain, with market-implied odds reflecting a fragmented field where no single company has pulled ahead decisively. Intense rivalry among labs developing large language models fuels this balance, as incremental gains in mathematical reasoning benchmarks and demonstrated capabilities keep multiple players in contention. Recent model updates from established firms have tightened performance gaps, while regulatory scrutiny and development timelines add layers of unpredictability. Upcoming evaluations, new releases, and third-party benchmark results in the coming weeks represent the main catalysts that could consolidate or further disperse trader sentiment before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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