Marine layer persistence and typical August coastal cooling patterns drive the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 52–57°F for San Francisco’s lowest temperature today. Official NWS forecasts and recent observations show overnight lows stabilizing in the upper 50s amid mostly cloudy skies, southwest winds of 5–15 mph, and high humidity near 90%, consistent with the 56°F climatological average and the 57°F minimum recorded the prior night. Subtle differences among the leading bins hinge on minor forecast variations in marine stratus thickness, wind speed, and any brief clearing that could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°F, while probabilities drop sharply below 50°F or above 58°F given the absence of extreme advection or clear-sky radiational cooling. Updated model runs and morning observations from downtown stations will refine these thresholds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 23?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 23?
52-53°F 33%
54-55°F 33%
56-57°F 33%
58-59°F 30%
$919 Vol.
$919 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
49°F or below
<1%
50-51°F
7%
52-53°F
33%
54-55°F
33%
56-57°F
33%
58-59°F
30%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68°F or higher
<1%
52-53°F 33%
54-55°F 33%
56-57°F 33%
58-59°F 30%
$919 Vol.
$919 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
49°F or below
$54 Vol.
<1%
50-51°F
$50 Vol.
7%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
33%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
33%
56-57°F
$5 Vol.
33%
58-59°F
$32 Vol.
30%
60-61°F
$158 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$105 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$145 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$195 Vol.
<1%
68°F or higher
$174 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Marine layer persistence and typical August coastal cooling patterns drive the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 52–57°F for San Francisco’s lowest temperature today. Official NWS forecasts and recent observations show overnight lows stabilizing in the upper 50s amid mostly cloudy skies, southwest winds of 5–15 mph, and high humidity near 90%, consistent with the 56°F climatological average and the 57°F minimum recorded the prior night. Subtle differences among the leading bins hinge on minor forecast variations in marine stratus thickness, wind speed, and any brief clearing that could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°F, while probabilities drop sharply below 50°F or above 58°F given the absence of extreme advection or clear-sky radiational cooling. Updated model runs and morning observations from downtown stations will refine these thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$919End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Marine layer persistence and typical August coastal cooling patterns drive the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 52–57°F for San Francisco’s lowest temperature today. Official NWS forecasts and recent observations show overnight lows stabilizing in the upper 50s amid mostly cloudy skies, southwest winds of 5–15 mph, and high humidity near 90%, consistent with the 56°F climatological average and the 57°F minimum recorded the prior night. Subtle differences among the leading bins hinge on minor forecast variations in marine stratus thickness, wind speed, and any brief clearing that could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°F, while probabilities drop sharply below 50°F or above 58°F given the absence of extreme advection or clear-sky radiational cooling. Updated model runs and morning observations from downtown stations will refine these thresholds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$919End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Marine layer persistence and typical August coastal cooling patterns drive the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 52–57°F for San Francisco’s lowest temperature today. Official NWS forecasts and recent observations show overnight lows stabilizing in the upper 50s amid mostly cloudy skies, southwest winds of 5–15 mph, and high humidity near 90%, consistent with the 56°F climatological average and the 57°F minimum recorded the prior night. Subtle differences among the leading bins hinge on minor forecast variations in marine stratus thickness, wind speed, and any brief clearing that could shift the exact minimum by 1–2°F, while probabilities drop sharply below 50°F or above 58°F given the absence of extreme advection or clear-sky radiational cooling. Updated model runs and morning observations from downtown stations will refine these thresholds before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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