Recent forecasts from meteorological models project a minimum temperature near 12–15°C in Mexico City on August 22, 2026, driven by the high-altitude valley setting (roughly 2,240 m) and persistent moisture from the rainy season that favors partly cloudy, showery conditions. These factors limit nocturnal radiative cooling while suppressing stronger daytime heating, keeping overnight lows aligned with August climatology of 11–14°C. Trader-implied probabilities concentrate on the 12°C and 15°C outcomes as latest model runs show modest upward revisions amid lingering humidity, with very low odds assigned to extremes below 11°C or above 16°C given the absence of clear-sky or anomalous air-mass influences. Updated guidance from agencies like CONAGUA will further refine these assessments ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Mexico City on August 22?
Lowest temperature in Mexico City on August 22?
15°C 91%
12°C 19%
13°C 19%
6°C or below <1%
$2,126 Vol.
$2,126 Vol.
Aug 22, 2026
6°C or below
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C or higher
No
15°C 91%
12°C 19%
13°C 19%
6°C or below <1%
$2,126 Vol.
$2,126 Vol.
Aug 22, 2026
6°C or below
$125 Vol.
No
7°C
$105 Vol.
No
8°C
$127 Vol.
No
9°C
$132 Vol.
No
10°C
$221 Vol.
No
11°C
$127 Vol.
No
12°C
$32 Vol.
No
13°C
$32 Vol.
No
14°C
$614 Vol.
No
15°C
$210 Vol.
Yes
16°C or higher
$401 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models project a minimum temperature near 12–15°C in Mexico City on August 22, 2026, driven by the high-altitude valley setting (roughly 2,240 m) and persistent moisture from the rainy season that favors partly cloudy, showery conditions. These factors limit nocturnal radiative cooling while suppressing stronger daytime heating, keeping overnight lows aligned with August climatology of 11–14°C. Trader-implied probabilities concentrate on the 12°C and 15°C outcomes as latest model runs show modest upward revisions amid lingering humidity, with very low odds assigned to extremes below 11°C or above 16°C given the absence of clear-sky or anomalous air-mass influences. Updated guidance from agencies like CONAGUA will further refine these assessments ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 8:30 PM ET
Volume
$2,126End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 8:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological models project a minimum temperature near 12–15°C in Mexico City on August 22, 2026, driven by the high-altitude valley setting (roughly 2,240 m) and persistent moisture from the rainy season that favors partly cloudy, showery conditions. These factors limit nocturnal radiative cooling while suppressing stronger daytime heating, keeping overnight lows aligned with August climatology of 11–14°C. Trader-implied probabilities concentrate on the 12°C and 15°C outcomes as latest model runs show modest upward revisions amid lingering humidity, with very low odds assigned to extremes below 11°C or above 16°C given the absence of clear-sky or anomalous air-mass influences. Updated guidance from agencies like CONAGUA will further refine these assessments ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,126End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 8:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent forecasts from meteorological models project a minimum temperature near 12–15°C in Mexico City on August 22, 2026, driven by the high-altitude valley setting (roughly 2,240 m) and persistent moisture from the rainy season that favors partly cloudy, showery conditions. These factors limit nocturnal radiative cooling while suppressing stronger daytime heating, keeping overnight lows aligned with August climatology of 11–14°C. Trader-implied probabilities concentrate on the 12°C and 15°C outcomes as latest model runs show modest upward revisions amid lingering humidity, with very low odds assigned to extremes below 11°C or above 16°C given the absence of clear-sky or anomalous air-mass influences. Updated guidance from agencies like CONAGUA will further refine these assessments ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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